Northampton and Saracens confirmed their places in the top four last Saturday, but five clubs will battle for the last two places in the final round of a thrilling Premiership season.
Bath are on the verge of qualification, and only need a point against Saints to secure their place, while Sale Sharks could yet secure a home semi-final and deny Saracens one in the process.
Harlequins and Bristol will each hope they can earn a big enough win in their contest at the Stoop to stay in the hunt, but a bonus point win for Exeter at Leicester would end both their hopes.
TRP online editor Nick Powell starts his preview at Kingsholm, where Gloucester face a Newcastle side looking to avoid a winless season.
All matches kick-off at 3:05pm on 18/05, live on TNT Sports or Discovery+
Gloucester vs Newcastle Falcons (Kingsholm)
The records tumbled for Gloucester at Franklin’s Gardens last week for all the wrong reasons: a record away defeat in the Premiership, a record defeat by any team who failed to score a point (by a considerable margin) in the league and the biggest defeat in all competitions in their history.
The Cherry and Whites fielded a relatively inexperienced team, and George Skivington expected they may have been handing Northampton a comfortable win, but he couldn’t deny losing 90-0 was “extremely painful”.
A vote of confidence from the Gloucester board will have eased his concerns, but he will desperate to put things right this weekend ahead of Gloucester’s trip to Tottenham for next week’s Challenge Cup Final.
Skivington makes 11 changes to the team from last weekend, with three new front row players in the form of Jamal Ford-Robinson, Seb Blake and Kirill Gotovtsev, two new backrowers as Ruan Ackermann and Zach Mercer return, and one new second row with Freddie Clarke partnering Freddie Thomas.
Caolan Englefield replaces Stephen Varney at scrum-half, Seb Atkinson and Chris Harris form a new centre partnership with Ollie Thorley and Jonny May – in May’s last game for Gloucester – operating on the wings.
Gloucester’s hammering by Northampton surpassed Newcastle’s defeat at Bristol in April, which had previously broken the record for the most points conceded by an away team in the league.
Falcons have remained winless since then though, and travel into this game with their spot at the bottom confirmed of the table, one place behind Gloucester.
Nonetheless improved performances have given them reasons to hopeful of the future under Steve Diamond, even knowing that fifteen of their squad will be heading off after this contest.
In Newcastle’s solitary change from their spirited showing against Bath last Friday, John Hawkins replaces Sebastian de Chaves in the second row, while academy player Adam Scott could make his Premiership debut in the same position off the bench.
Bath vs Northampton Saints (The Recreation Ground)
With the return of Finn Russell last week, Bath put their ambitions for a home semi-final back on track. Even if they do win here though, they will need other results to go their way.
Although the stakes are even higher, the situation is largely similar to the one the Somerset side faced on the final day last season: facing a weakened team leading the table, with a goal of their own to achieve.
In 2023 it was for a place in the Champions Cup, and this time around they’ve made one alteration as they aim to confirm their place in the play-offs for the first time since 2020. Josh Bayliss comes in at number eight with Alfie Barbeary moving to the bench.
Northampton have faced a hectic schedule in recent weeks, and after earning their place in the top two with that record win against Gloucester, have taken the option to rest players.
They are unlikely to suffer as badly as Gloucester did against themselves however, and may be hungry to throw a spanner in the works as Bath end to aim the regular season on a high.
Saints have only retained one player in each of the forwards and backs with Angus Scott-Young continuing as he moves to blindside flanker and Ollie Sleightholme remaining on the left-wing.
Lewis Ludlam, Rory Hutchinson and Burger Odendaal return from injury on the openside, at fly-half and in the centres respectively, with Sam Graham alongside Ludlam at number eight, Tom James joining Hutchinson in the half-backs and Tom Litchfield partnering Odendaal in the midfield.
James Ramm and Tom Seabrook accompany Sleightholme in the back three, Emmanuel Iyogun, Sam Matavesi and Elliot Millar Mills form a new front row and Temo Mayanavanua and Tom Lockett pair up at lock.
Harlequins vs Bristol (Twickenham Stoop)
Harlequins’ hopes of making a second semi-final of the season took a hit last weekend, when they were beaten by Exeter side who coach Rob Baxter admitted had been helped by significantly more rest.
It left Quins’ destiny out of their hands, with Sale and Exeter both able to secure fourth place ahead of them in their matches on the final day.
A bonus point win would nevertheless leave Quins in a favourable position to get that final spot, which perhaps explains why they are given the best chance of making the top four of the teams ranked 4th-7th in the percentage predictions (below) to make the play-offs.
Andre Esterhuizen returns for what could be his final game in a Quins shirt, as Danny Care gets his first start since signing a new contract to keep him at the club next season. Promising prop Fin Baxter returns in the front row, with Will Evans into openside flanker.
Despite being one point behind the Londoners, Bristol have a similar chance of making the top four if they make the play-offs.
They have one more win than Quins and a points difference that is 128 points higher, meaning they can afford to tie with Exeter in the table whereas Quins must finish a point clear of the Chiefs – though both also need Sale to lose.
Bristol make three changes from their defeat to Saracens last Saturday with Callum Sheedy replacing the concussed AJ MacGinty at fly-half, Noah Heward coming onto the wing and Harry Thacker playing hooker.
Leicester Tigers vs Exeter Chiefs (Welford Road)
After their defeat against Sale last weekend, Leicester are dependent on Gloucester losing to South Africa’s Sharks in the Challenge Cup Final if they are to make it into next year’s Champions Cup.
It leaves them with nothing to play for this weekend, though they have picked a strong team as they bid to give Jasper Wiese, Francois van Wyk and Matt Scott a winning send off.
All three players start, with a change in each of the forwards and backs as Julián Montoya returns at hooker and Mike Brown features on the wing following his suspension
Exeter’s youngsters were not expected to mount a serious play-off challenge this season, especially considering their more experienced outfit failed to make it into the top four last term, but Chiefs have surpassed expectations to leave themselves in with a realistic shout of a top four spot heading into the final round.
They will have to rely on Sale losing at Saracens and will need a bonus point win to stop Quins or Bristol having a chance, but after scoring 58 against the former last week they will hope to produce a similar attacking display only having to make one change.
With club captain Jack Yeandle out of the starting team after sustaining a knee injury last Saturday, Max Norey comes into the starting line-up and Wales skipper Dafydd Jenkins steps up to lead the team.
Saracens vs Sale Sharks (StoneX Stadium)
Saracens will be heavily favoured to secure a home semi-final against Sale at the venue where they hope to be for the play-offs, and a win here would dispel any suggestion they are still suffering from the inconsistency that has dogged them at times this season.
The Londoners make just two changes from the team that beat Bristol last weekend with Christian Judge into tighthead prop and Sean Maitland returning on the right wing.
Mako Vunipola starts in the week that he announced he and brother Billy would be leaving the club, with the latter among the replacements in a 6:2 split of forwards and backs on the bench.
Exeter, Harlequins, and Bristol’s play-off hopes all rest on the assumption that Sale will lose at the StoneX Stadium, but the in-form Greater Manchester club can kill off the three clubs’ dreams with a win in Hendon.
As long as they don’t give Saracens two bonus points Sale could yet get a home semi-final for themselves with a fifth-consecutive four-try win in the league, though they would need Bath to lose or draw to weakened Northampton.
Hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie and full-back Joe Carpenter return to the starting XV for this crunch game, as boss Alex Sanderson heads back to the club where he was involved for 17 years as a player and then assistant coach.
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