The Rugby Paper’s Six Nations preview: Green giants can cast long shadow over rivals

Amid the clinking cutlery and a few chinking glasses, The Rugby Paper’s brain’s trust gathered at Jeremy Guscott‘s favourite Bath watering hole, Walcot House, to dissect a main course of hot topics ahead of Saturday’s kick-off. Alongside Guscott, columnists Nick Cain, Peter Jackson, Brendan Gallagher and Chris Hewett gave their opinions to editor Matthew Emery.

Matthew Emery: It was a successful autumn for the northern hemisphere sides, so that should mean it will be some Six Nations.

Nick Cain: It will be the most competitive Championship of recent years, so I don’t see a Grand Slam.

Peter Jackson: Take out Italy and is there a match that you would put a fortune on one teaming beating another? Possibly Ireland v Wales, apart from that there is not one game I would bet on. I wouldn’t put much on England winning in Scotland.

Jerry Guscott: Of course they will! I know we’ve been waiting years for Scotland to be the team that people think they will be but I don’t know how much better they can be.

Chris Hewett: They have one big victory in them, at Murrayfield against England or the French if their tight five and their fundamentals work for them.

Brendan Gallagher: Yes, Scotland definitely have the forward clout, their pack took England apart at Twickenham, and they are a stronger squad now. Consistency is still their issue or, more specifically, closing out games they should have won like the Wales and Ireland matches last year. That is a mindset thing. Beat England first up and they could fly.

JG: For me, Scotland fundamentally do not have enough aggressive, ballcarrying forwards – which is part of what undid England last season. Scotland have the weight, enough footballing ability but they can’t sustain consistent performances. Last year they won three, lost two. And they won hard games, France and England.

NC: I think we have to be a bit careful on judging the Scottish forwards as not hitting hard. They out-scrummaged England and weathered the storm in Paris to get away with the win – Scotland are a force again. If England are off their game in any way they will get beaten.

JG: I know they were at home but England proved in the autumn that even playing averagely they can beat a side like South Africa. I think Scotland rely too much on their really good players – Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg – who’s there go to forward?

CH: They still look to Johnny Gray as their kingpin forward.

PJ: Jamie Ritchie’s a good player.

NC: And Hamish Watson.

JG: Yes Watson deserved to be player of the Six Nations and go on the Lions tour. But he’s almost a one man carrying machine for Scotland. Who else carries? CH: Zander Fagerson.

NC: Ewan Ashman at hooker.

CH: If they’ve got some ball and go forward they have footballers in the backline, and the size of Duhan van der Merwe and Chris Harris – but they have to stack up up front.

ME: So what about England – what are the key selections Eddie Jones has to get right?

NC: They have a hard road that ends in Paris. They’ve fallen at Murrayfield before and they still have serious issues. Eddie Jones refers to it as a new England, they’ve got some very exciting talent coming through but Jones has left that a year too late. He’s only got 20 months before the next World Cup.

PJ: There cannot have been a coach in the professional era who has made as many changes as Jones – 180 odd players in his six years in charge.

BG: Too much choice isn’t always a good thing as England have shown many times over the decades.

PJ: The players must be almost as bemused as we are, it’s like he doesn’t know.

JG: He got to a World Cup final, just remember that.

PJ: But we also remember that England went into that final as odds on favourites and lost it by a mile. How can you pick Orlando Bailey, however good and promising he may be, and initially omit George Ford – the form stand-off in the Premiership?

NC: Jones is the archetypal tinker man. He brought in George Martin, the Leicester lock, and now he’s out of the squad with Ollie Chessum brought in. What sort of message does that send? Martin’s not playing badly in a side that’s ripping it up.

PJ: I think Eddie is looking too much at the World Cup and not about the job in hand.

JG: A good team picks itself but there aren’t enough good players in England playing consistently enough to pick themselves. Tom Curry and Maro Itoje are consistent performers, and the new boy Freddie Steward is playing brilliantly at 15. Who else?

NC: Luke Cowan-Dickie has been reasonably consistent, Courtney Lawes extremely so – he should be captain.

JG: I don’t think anyone’s dominant enough.

CH: Eddie can’t settle on a back row or a midfield.

JG: We look at the players a lot and not the coaches and Eddie has changed more of his coaches than he has the team, percentage wise. He’s now got Martin Gleeson on attack, Anthony Seibold on defence and Matt Proudfoot and Richard Cockerill doing the forwards. Can the players there adapt to the coaches? It’s Eddie’s game plan but I always think a team needs to lead the way they want to play.

ME: Who should start at No.8?

BG: If it’s Marcus Smith at 10 then it has to be Alex Dombrandt to maintain that Quins continuity. Sam Simmonds is a superb option to come on with half an hour to go.

CH: Dombrandt has been eyecatching but if you’re going to take what happens in club rugby seriously there was a big head to head between Dombrandt and Simmonds at The Stoop and I only saw one No.8 playing. Simmonds played him off the park.

NC: Tom Curry at No.8 is a typical Eddie botch. Eddie says the roles at 7 and 8 can be interchangeable. He says now they are virtually the same. But you need to have played No.8 on a regular basis. Curry is a very good No.7, he’s not a No.8 in my reckoning.

CH: Sale don’t pick him there.

NC: Over two seasons Dombrandt has shown he has the pedigree to play at that level. They’ve asked him to get more involvements in defence and he’s got better at it. Give the guy a chance as a starter, not with ten minutes to go. I would pick him and have Billy Vunipola on the bench.

CH: They’ve messed around the same way at 9. They’ve gone missing on duty. Ben Youngs is still there.

JG: I’ve thought Ben Spencer has been the best 9 in the country for the last two seasons but he doesn’t get close. Any team that is undecided on their halfback combination is unlikely to win a World Cup. You need a very stable 9 and 10, those are the guys who run your team.

CH: Eddie’s go-to young 9a year or so ago was Alex Mitchell. Now he’s nowhere.

ME: Owen Farrell is out of the tournament – could it be a blessing for Smith’s development? Who should be in midfield?

NC: Smith does not need Farrell at 12. It overcomplicates the whole thing with two distributors. Smith strives on running the show. I’d give Mark Atkinson a go. Smith will thrive on someone getting over the gain line and getting fast ball. That’s where Smith’s at his best. Farrell gets in is way.

JG: I don’t think there’s enough evidence that Farrell was in his way. I agree with what Eddie says about Smith needing Farrell there. Going back Jonny Wilkinson, in my view, needed someone inside and outside of him to say ‘Jonny kick, Jonny pass’. That’s very black and white and there’s a lot more to it than that, but there was a lot of communication. I’m not sure how much of that goes on now. My big worry for England is they still don’t think they have enough big ball carriers up front –I never like England without Manu Tuilagi.

CH: Eddie thinks Tuilagi is a comfort blanket for the players as they see him as someone to follow, but he’s never really, to my eye, cut it at 12.

NC: He did when they beat Ireland in Dublin.

CH: I think he’s more of a 13. He’s not a great footballer.

JG: You don’t have to be – look at the way Sale and Harlequins play with their big units at 12. You adapt. Even though Will Carling wasn’t big he was direct which straightens the line to give you space which is a big attribute to attacking.

CH: And Carling could pass, he just never passed it to you!

JG: I still scored enough tries so he must have passed it enough times! Henry Slade is one of the best club centres in the world but one of the most average internationals in terms of his impact and dominance in a game. How often have we seen that? Probably once, in Ireland. He has been average and is challengeable.

NC: His pass for Joe Marchant to score in the last Test England played was beautiful.

JG: He doesn’t do it consistently.

BG: In the short term I would go with Atkinson and Slade. In the long term, assuming Manu is never going to play two Tests on the bounce again, I reckon Freddie Steward could be a world beater at 12, England’s answer to Andre Esterhuizen or Damien de Allende. That would allow Max Malins to play 15, his best position.

CH: Some of this is about how good a communicator they are. I hear there are question marks over Slade, which is why he’s at 13 while a lot of people think he’s a more natural 12.

JG: I’d have Slade and Marchant.

NC: That’s the midfield that finished against South Africa.

PJ: What’s Adam Radwan done wrong?

JG: He’s the biggest talent in the northern hemisphere.

PJ: Hopefully Jack Nowell gets a run without injuries.

CH: All the coaches love him.

JG: The only thing he doesn’t do is pass. If you’re defending against Nowell you just need to tackle him, he isn’t passing.

NC: The real problem for me is the scrum – against South Africa you could see their vulnerabilities. Kyle Sinckler is not a rock-solid tighthead.

CH: He’s also got a GPS reading of zero – he walks! Austin Shepherd was more mobile.

NC: We know that he can bloody run because we’ve seen him do it at the World Cup.

CH: He’s a hell of a talent but he’s a mood player and it is Jones’s job to make damn sure that the mood is correct on big match days.

BG: His core scrummaging is not up to scratch. England’s best props are Joe Marler and Will Collier but I want to hear Nick off his long run on this!

NC: Scrummaging wise, Sinckler is in a defensive mode most of the time. His legs are back, he’s never looking to attack. He’s soft hitting and those things in the end get found out. Collier has been the best tighthead this season but is not even in the squad. England’s front five got buffeted around by the Boks and their back row were in the game more. Curry is a very good player but he still has a lot to prove and the best place for him to do it is at 7. By moving these players around Jones is over complicating something that should be straightforward. He wants to reinvent the wheel all the time and he ought to accept the wheel can turn by itself.

ME: So no one is tipping England or Scotland… who is going to win it?

NC: I say France. The break in terms of home games is in their favour and they have a fantastic side in the making – but they’ve lost their captain, Charles Ollivon, so the mantle will fall on Antoine Dupont.

PJ: Is he fit?

NC: He should be, but whether he’s able to manage being their main driving force, and their public face, with all the pressure that’s coming on in France with the World Cup coming is a different matter.

PJ: France are terrific; I love the way they play, but there is still something a bit fragile.

NC: Where do you see the fragility?

JG: Mentally with France.

PJ: They will find a way to lose a game. They found a way to lose against Scotland ludicrously when Brice Dulin didn’t kick the ball out.

JG: And the same thing against Australia in the first Test last summer.

PJ: Ruthless is a quality they are lacking.

JG: France would be my unquestionable favourites to win it but they will give every team a chance to win, including Italy. That’s how crazy they are.

NC: I think we’re all hoping France have brain fade at some stage to keep this Championship alive. I think they will have learnt. They have thrown away a couple of Championships and will want to put down a marker. They have depth in virtually every position that’s unrivalled by any of the other countries. But they’ve always had that element that they can implode.

BG: The other Achilles heel is if Dupont is injured, the drop off to those who might replace him is huge.

JG: When I used to play against France there was this wave of attacking. Huge bullocking forwards would be coming at you but we would struggle to follow their running lines. The French pack is the only pack where you think there is a herd of buffalo coming at you. If they get that offloading game going…

NC: It’s sort of like a percussion. At times against New Zealand they played with that rhythm and that wave. They are beginning to recapture it.

JG: But there is no style or consistency to the French.

CH: You’re right, they are still working through for next year.

BG: I’m still not sure how they will react discipline-wise if put under the pump.

CH: To me one of the reasons they always give the opposition an opportunity to win the game is their frustration at the referees. There is nowhere near enough clear communication between the players and referees that goes on in every game now where the ref is giving a running commentary.

BG: They are very nearly there, that win over New Zealand was one of the most exhilarating performances of modern times yet pretty much the same group of players managed to lose to England and Scotland last season.

NC: Gregory Alldritt is a very important player.

PJ: They only have about four players past 30.

ME: So who do you think will win it Jacko?

PJ: Ireland. They have the best front row in the world – and the best front five in the world with Iain Henderson and James Ryan. The All Blacks gave me the impression that they were visibly shocked at not being able to live with Ireland’s intensity. The big if is Johnny Sexton staying fit.

BG: Even at 65 or whatever he is, Sexton is as important to Ireland as Dupont is to France. As usual he will be copping a lot of marginal late hits and big ball carriers will single him out. His fitness is the only thing I see holding Ireland back. It’s Ireland for me, too.

CH: Me, too. I think the French at their stage of their development can let one slip. Ireland understand their game. They’re not terribly ambitious but I agree entirely with Peter that their front five are exceptional. I think they are a bit light at openside without Dan Leavy – if anything happens to Josh van der Flier…

NC: Van de Flier is fast and dynamic – he’s gone up a gear.

JG: They are so strategised – they are still in the hangover of Joe Schmidt. If they are down by seven points do they have the flair to change the match?

CH: They are not a chasing team.

BG: There is a new era of brilliant young backs coming through who will re-energise the established order. Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki are Lions but I’d be just as fearful of a midfield of Garry Ringrose and James Hume. And at fullback Hugo Keenan needs to be consistently brilliant to fend off Michael Lowry.

CH: A Henshaw-Ringrose midfield is exciting and their game understanding and familiarity with their strategy makes them favourites, especially as they have three home games.

PJ: Ringrose gives them flair.

CH: Underrated I think.

PJ: Jacob Stockdale’s out and it will be interesting to see if they start with Keith Earls.

ME: So you expect Ireland to win comfortably over Wales?

PJ: I expect them to get a bonus point. I’d be surprised if they get anything less.

NC: Reigning champions no chance in Dublin?

PJ: This time last year the depth of gloom in Wales was such that it was ‘are we going to win a single game?’. They went within a minute of a Grand Slam. It would help if they get another four or five red cards this season. Given the players they’ve lost it will be tough.

They’ve brought Ross Moriarty back to help with the ball carrying which is why they’ve had to move the captaincy from Ellis Jenkins to Dan Biggar because if Moriarty is fit and firing he’ll play blindside. Jenkins may end up at No.8 but they are missing huge players, like Taulupe Faletau at his best.

NC: But he hasn’t been at his best for a hell of a long time.

BG: I fear Wales are in for one of their scrappy underwhelming seasons which often follow their great glories. They have absorbed a huge number of big injuries and you can only go to the well so often.

PJ: The best Wales can hope for is fourth.

NC: That’s what you said last year!

PJ: I had them fifth last year!

CH: Warren Gatland’s take on it was that the regional scene in Wales is so bereft of any winning mentality that when those best players get into camp it’s a comfort blanket and they love being there. Wayne Pivac had a rough start but I think he has managed to sustain that somehow.

JG: Pivac’s been really hard done by by injuries.

PJ: He’s done really well because he’s made Wales better to watch.

ME: What about Biggar’s promotion to the captaincy?

PJ: I’m a Biggar fan. I admire his industry.

NC: His competitive spirit is off the chart.

PJ: And that worries me a bit as the captain needs to be a bit of a diplomat.

CH: I don’t think Dan will feel he is underserving of the honour.

PJ: No and I think it’s probably a safe enough call because he is sure of his place.

BG: Biggar has grown steadily on me as a player and a bloke and he will maximise the Welsh effort. Refs though had better prepare for an ear battering, as skipper Dan can now officially give them grief.

PJ: The player I’m surprised he hasn’t picked, not for today but for tomorrow, is Ioan Lloyd at Bristol. He’s a super talent. I don’t think Jonathan Davies should be in the team.

ME: Which players will catch the eye?

PJ: Caelan Doris is outstanding, across the back row.

CH: That’s another thing about the Irish, they have some young but already highly influential players – Ronan Kelleher, Andrew Porter, Doris, and Jack Conan.

NC: Surname Doris, plays like Samson! Eddie would give his eyeteeth for these guys. Kelleher is the most dynamic hooker in the Six Nations.

CH: Cameron Woki is my player to watch; Ellis Jenkins too because before his injury he was in stunning form.

BG: Look out for Damian Penaud he’s on fire right now.

NC: Louis Rees-Zammit, he’s electric.

JG: Steward can challenge for player of the tournament. If he continues on this path he’ll be the next Lions full-back.

CH: We haven’t mentioned Italy!

PJ: Italy have lost 32 in a row in this tournament. They are not competitive anymore.

JG: At some stage they’ve just got to go.

BG: Until they regain their grunt and dog up front Italy will continue to lose and to lose badly. They should devote their entire training camp to scrums, lineouts and restarts. Absolute basics.

CH: Is there a single player in their squad that would make it into another team’s 23?

NC: Jake Polledri might.

BG: Monty Ioane would be a prolific try scorer in any team.

CH: They are a terrible drag on the tournament. They’ve wrecked their own league.

NC: With the exception of Nick Mallett, they have not had top coaches. They need a coach with a good track record.

CH: Nick Mallett picked Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half… what did he know?

NC: That was him saying I’ve had enough of this.

CH: You might as well pick Harry Randall at tighthead!