Premiership round 11: preview and predictions

Bath v Saracens
Bath Rugby have made six changes to the starting line-up that beat Calvisano in the Amlin Challenge Cup last weekend as they prepare to face Saracens at The Rec tomorrow.
Nick Abendanon returns at full-back in the only change to the back line
Paul James and Lee Mears both come back into the front row, packing down alongside David Wilson, while captain Stuart Hooper returns in the engine room.
Simon Taylor shifts to No.8 with Francois Louw coming in on the blindside and Guy Mercer taking the openside.
Meanwhile Saracens make three changes to the starting line-up that beat Munster last weekend.
In the backs, Alex Goode and Brad Barritt are rested which sees Chris Wyles start at full-back and Charlie Hodgson named at fly-half. Owen Farrell switches to inside centre.
In the forwards, Mako Vunipola starts the match with Rhys Gill switching to the bench. Andy Saull also returns after missing last week with a hamstring injury.
Ernst Joubert, Jackson Wray, Alistair Hargreaves, Joe Maddock, Adam Powell, Jacques Burger and Justin Melck all miss the match through injury.
Bath: Abendanon; Agulla, Eastmond, Williams, Biggs; Donald, Claassens; James, Mears, Wilson; Hooper (capt.), Day; Louw, Mercer, Taylor.
Replacements: Dunn, Beech, Perenise, Attwood, Skuse, McMillan, Heathcote, Hipkiss.
Saracens: Wyles; Ashton, Tomkins, Farrell, Strettle; Hodgson, Wigglesworth; Vunipola, Brits, Stevens; Borthwick (capt.), Botha; Kruis, Fraser, Brown.
Replacements: George, Gill, Du Plessis, Sheriff, Saull, De Kock, Taylor, Short.
Prediction: Two clear approach here. Bath went for two specialist opensides to make sure they slow the ball down in defence while creating quick ball in attack. On the other hand, Sarries picked two kickers to play the territory game. Sarries are expert at clinching away wins in that fashion so Bath will have to do it the hard way if they’re to win but I think they’ll come up short.
Gloucester v Exeter
Director of Rugby Nigel Davies kept faith with the majority of the team that defeated London Irish last weekend for the reception of Exeter tomorrow.
There are only three new faces – Nick Wood and Shaun Knight come in at loose head and tight head respectively, while Ben Morgan returns at No.8.
Tom Savage moves from blindside into the second row with Sione Kalamafoni shifting across the back row from No.8 to wear the No.6 shirt.
Exeter travel to Kingsholm on the back of seven consecutive wins in all competition including back-to-back wins over the Scarlets in the Heineken Cup the last two weeks.
Rob Baxter makes four changes including three in the back line with Luke Arscott, Jason Shoemark and Matt Jess all return at full-back, centre and wing respectively.
The solitary difference in the pack sees Richard Baxter come in for the injured Tom Johnson at No.8.
Gloucester: Cook; Sharples, Tindall, Twelvetrees, Monahan; Burns, Cowan; Wood, Dawidiuk, Knight; Savage, Hamilton (capt.); Kalamafoni, Qera, Morgan.
Replacements: Edmonds, Murphy, Chistolini, James, Cox, Robson, Molenaar, Thomas.
Exeter: Arscott; Camacho, Dollman, Shoemark, Jess; Steenson, Thomas; Sturgess, Alcott, Tui; Muldowney, Hanks; Mumm, Scaysbrook (capt), Baxter.
Replacements: Clark, Moon, Rimmer, Hayes, White, Barrett, Mieres, Whitten.
Prediction: On form, these two are the best in the league right now with only one defeat in the last 13 games. Exeter seem to have reach a new level in recent weeks while the Cherry and Whites have been on the rise since Davies’ arrival. There will be nothing between these two and I’m going to go for the home side purely because the home advantage will give them an edge.
London Irish v Leicester
Marland Yarde has recovered from injury and will start on the left wing for London Irish tomorrow.
Irish Ian Humphreys will start at fly-half and Canadian Jebb Sinclair joins Declan Danaher and Chris Hala’ufia in the back row.
After two defeats against Gloucester in the Amlin Cup, the Premiership is now the Exiles’ main focus as they face a long battle to avoid relegation after only two wins in the opening ten games.
Geordan Murphy will make his 200th Premiership appearance as he is included in the Tigers’ starting line-up for the first time since the win over Northampton Saints in early November.
He starts at full-back while England fly-half Toby Flood also returns after recovering from a toe injury and making his first club appearance since the end of October.
Graham Kitchener comes into the second row with Jordan Crane wearing the No.8 shirt replacing the injured Thomas Waldrom who is ruled out by a calf injury he picked up in Treviso last week.
London Irish: Homer; Ojo, Joseph, Tagicakibau, Yarde; Humphreys, Allinson; Lahiff, Paice, Aulika; Evans, Garvey; Danaher (capt.),Sinclair, Hala’ufia.
Replacements: Lawson, Yanuyanutawa, Halavatau, Low, Gibson, Armitage, Geraghty, Moates.
Leicester: Murphy; Morris, Tuilagi, Allen, Thompstone; Flood, B. Youngs; Ayerza, T. Youngs, Cole; L. Deacon (capt.), Kitchener; B. Deacon, Salvi, Crane.
Replacements: Hawkins, Mulipola, Balmain, Slater, Parling, Harrison, Ford, Smith.
Prediction: Irish took time to prepare for that very important game by sending youngster to Kingsholm last week while the Tigers fought very hard to win in Treviso. Both sides are not at their best and it’s time for the Exiles to deliver but I don’t think they will. Tigers to win it just.
London Wasps v Sale
Hugo Southwell returns at full-back to captain London Wasps for the reception of Sale on Sunday.
Along the Scot, there are five other changes from the side that beat Bayonne last time out.
With the league’s top try-scorer Tom Varndell missing out to a minor foot injury this weekend, Elliot Daly shifts to the wing in the only other change to the back line.
Up front, Zak Taulafo moves across to loose-head with Phil Swainston returning on the other side of the scrum, while T Rhys Thomas gets the nod at hooker.
Newly capped England international Joe Launchbury returns to partner Marco Wentzel in the second-row, while Ashley Johnson is also back in, packing down in the No.6 shirt in a strong looking back-row alongside James Haskell and Billy Vunipola.
Following their record 62-0 thumping in Toulon last week, Sale have dropped Danny Cipriani as Nick McLeod comes back from injury to wear the No.10 shirt.
Marc Jones makes his first start of the season at hooker having been out injured since the first game of the campaign away at Exeter.
Sam Tuitupou and Jonny Leota are reunited in the centres for the first time since the win over London Irish on 2nd November.
London Wasps: Southwell (capt.); Daly, Masi, Bell, Wade; Jones, Simpson; Taulafo, Thomas, Swainston, Launchbury, Wentzel; Johnson, Haskell, Vunipola.
Replacements: Lindsay, Payne, Taylor, Cannon, Poff, Davies, Robinson, Mayor.
Sale: Miller; Jennings, Leota, Tuitupou, Cueto; Macleod, Cliff; Harrison, Jones, Lewis-Roberts; Gray, Myall; Gaskell, Seymour (capt.), Vernon.
Replacements: Croall, Cobilas, Buckley,  McKenzie, Powell, Willis, Uys, Brady.
Prediction: Week after week the Sharks are nearing the no-return point. Every game is now a must win game for them. They have made it clear they’re targeting this game for a while but it won’t be easy against a tight Wasps outfit at home. The battle up front will be fierce but Stephen Jones will prove his class to run the show and stir Wasps to a narrow win.
Northampton v Harlequins
England lock Courtney Lawes return for Northampton in the only change from the team that gave Ulster their first taste of defeat of the season last week.
Lawes replace Callum Clark, who drops to the bench, as Saints hope for more of the same against the Champions.
Stephen Myler and Lee Dickson carry on at half-backs while Paul Doran-Jones gets the nod over Brian Mujati again this week.
Joe Marler returns for Harlequins as one of five changes for the Premiership champions.
Marler takes place at loosehead with Samoan James Johnston also coming back at tight-head.
Olly Kohn partners George Robson in the second row while Maurie Fa’asavalu is named at blindside instead of Tom Guest who drops to the bench.
Among the backs, Ugo Monye moves to the left wing with Tom Williams starting on the right.
Mark Lambert will look to make his 100th appearance for the club from the bench.
Northampton: Foden; K. Pisi, G. Pisi, May, Elliot; Myler, Dickson; Tonga’Uiha, Haywood, Doran-Jones; Manoa, Lawes; Wood, Dowson (capt.), Van Velze.
Replacements: McMillan, Waller, Mujati, Sorenson, Clark, Roberts, Lamb, Waldouck.
Harlequins: Brown; Williams, Hopper, Casson,  Monye; Evans, Care; Marler, Gray, Johnston; Kohn, Robson; Fa’asavalu, Robshaw (capt.), Easter.
Replacements: Ward, Lambert, Collier, Matthews, Guest, Dickson, Botica, Smith.
Prediction: With Saracens facing a tough trip at Bath, the winner could spend Christmas at the top of the table. Saints’ confidence will be sky-high after last week but they have to back it up against the Champs and it won’t be easy. Both teams are at full strength (bar Dylan Hartley) for what promises to be a very tight encounter. I wish I could sit on the fence on this one but I’ll go for the Saints by a whisker. 
Worcester v London Welsh
Lock James Percival returns to the starting line-up to captain Worcester Warriors as they face London Welsh tonight.
Percival is one of four changes with wing David Lemi, full-back Chris Pennell and centre Josh Matavesi all recalled as Worcester look to maintain the club’s unbeaten run on home soil that extends back to the start of September.
Hooker Aleki Lutui is named among the replacements and could make his 100th Aviva Premiership appearance if he features in the game.
London Welsh head coach Lyn Jones makes 13 changes from the team that lost to Grenoble last week in the Amlin Challenge Cup.
Tom Arscott and Seb Jewell are the only two players to keep their spot at full-back and inside centre while a victory at Sixways would see Welsh leapfrog Worcester in the table, who sit only one point above them in ninth place.
Jones brings in international experience into the starting line up in the form of Gordon Ross, Frank Montanella, Sonny Parker and Kirill Kulemin.
Rob Lewis, who has recently been signed on loan from Cardiff Blues until the end of the season, is named at scrum-half.
Worcester: Pennell; Walker, Grove, Matavesi, Lemi; Goode, Hodgson; Ce. Jones, Shervington, Murray; Percival (capt.), Ch. Jones; Best, Kvesic, Taulava.
Replacements: Lutui, Porter, Andress, Schofield, Betty, Arr, Gray, Clarke.
London Welsh: Arscott; Caprice, Parker,  Jewell, Scott; Ross, Lewis; Montanella, Briggs, Joly; Mills (capt.),  Kulemin; Balding, Denbee, Jackson.
Replacements: Bateman, Bristow, Tideswell, Corker, To’oala, Runciman, Davies, Voyce.
Prediction: Worcester need the win for their Top 6 finish aspiration and I think they’ll do it against the minnows.