Preview: Ireland vs Wales (Saturday, 2:15pm)
Ireland continue their Grand Slam pursuit by making seven changes to return to their strongest XV against a winless Welsh side.
Wales haven’t won in Dublin in the Six Nations since their 2012 Grand Slam, with George North the only survivor from that year still in the squad, and they are not the only side to struggle on their travels across the Irish Sea.
Ireland are now 38 from their last 40 home games, whilst Wales, despite all the optimism from their last two valiant performances, have won just two of their last 12 Six Nations games.
This record includes the 34-10 defeat suffered in Warren Gatland‘s first game back at the Principality last year, where tries from Caelan Doris, James Ryan, James Lowe and Josh Van Der Flier – all in this week’s 23 – sealed a bonus point away win for the eventual Grand Slam champions.
In fact, 14 of Ireland’s 23 from last year’s fixture feature in Saturday’s matchday squad. For the first time, however, the biggest talking point strays from the burdened fly half shirt.
Instead, there will be great focus on how Ciarán Frawley plays at fullback, with the Leinster playmaker replacing his omnipresent clubmate Hugo Keenan, who is out with a knee injury.
2020 was the last time Keenan missed a Six Nations game against a team other than Italy, but with pre-tournament injuries to potential stand ins Mack Hansen and Jimmy O’Brien, Frawley is tasked with filling some considerably sized boots.
Frawley has just two caps for a combined 41 minutes, and Saturday will be just his ninth career outing at fullback, however, the 26-year-old has broken into a world class Leinster squad in his own right and could right some wrongs in Ireland’s place-kicking department.
The rest of the starting lineup resembles Ireland’s full strength outfit, excluding pre-tournament injuries. 22-year-old Joe McCarthy, thanks to a coming-of-age performance in the opening weekend vs France, has cemented himself in that full strength status.
With Jack Crowley and Ciarán Frawley in the starting XV, Ireland have opted for a 6-2 bench with the notable change among the subs being uncapped Oli Jager’s selection as replacement tighthead. The Munster man was born in London and bred in Ireland but has spent all of his rugby career in New Zealand after he was rejected from the Leinster academy aged 18.
He returned this year after forging a successful career at the Crusaders, and Farrell has seen enough in his six appearances to pick him over an on-form Finlay Bealham.
Meanwhile, Wales have made just one change to the XV that came up painfully short against England at Twickenham two weeks ago as Ioan Lloyd drops to the bench to allow Sam Costelow’s return.
Lloyd’s slightly frantic playstyle helped Wales stage a dramatic comeback against Scotland, but his game management was exposed a little against England. Wales attack coach Rob Howley has therefore said they have opted for Costelow’s experience, having been battle-hardened by a tough World Cup campaign.
There is a lot of faith being shown in Costelow given the undeniable contrast between the two playmakers’ fortunes vs Scotland, and he has continued to show faith in the rest of the lineup.
He’ll need his new stars to step up to have any hope of a win. The likes of Tommy Reffell will need to add to his tournament leading five breakdown turnovers so far, and Rio Dyer will need to continue making a case that he’s now a top-class international winger with his 111 metres made and six defenders beaten.
Ultimately, Wales will need a near flawless 80 minutes to secure a highly unlikely win. There are doubts over their bench – Ryan Elias’ throwing is enough to derail them alone having missed 5/11 throws against Scotland – but the main obstacle is the frightening quality littered over Ireland’s 23. The Grand Slam has an increasing sense of inevitability, and a Warren Gatland miracle will be required to stop it.
On Saturday’s Aviva Stadium encounter, Gatland said: “There has been a lot said about us being underdogs, but that is not a motivation for us.
“The motivation is the pressure we are putting on ourselves to get better from game one and two.
“We have spoken all week about having no fear to go there. It is going to be a huge challenge for us, but you have got to embrace that, you have got to be excited about that.”
Written by Tom Jeffreys
Ireland: Frawley; Nash, Henshaw, Aki, Lowe; Crowley, Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong; McCarthy, Beirne; O’Mahony (capt), Van der Flier, Doris.
Replacements: Kelleher, Healy, Jager, Ryan, Baird, Conan, Murray, McCloskey.
Wales: Winnett; Adams, North, Tompkins, Dyer; Costelow, Tomos Williams; G Thomas, Dee, Assiratti, Jenkins (capt), Beard, Mann, Reffell, Wainwright.
Replacements: Elias, Domachoswki, D Lewis, Rowlands, M Martin, Hardy, I Lloyd, Grady.
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