The most surprising results of the Autumn Nations Series

By Charlie Elliott

A combination of strong teams underperforming and perceived ‘weaker’ teams overperforming has resulted in a lot of shocks over this Autumn Nations Series campaign.

From home nations losing at home to some tier 2 shocks, here are the most surprising results of the Autumn.

England 37 – 42 Australia

This defeat at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham came at a time when England still had plenty of optimism going into the game, with it only being the second game after a narrow loss at the hands of the All Blacks.

It looked for all the world like Steve Borthwick’s men would bounce back and get a convincing result against Australia, but the Wallabies had other ideas.

After a Maro Itoje try to snatch a 37-35 lead in the last moments, many England fans were already disgruntled at the tight nature of victory.

LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 09: Max Jorgensen of Australia scores his team’s fifth try during the Autumn Nations Series 2025 match between England and Australia at Allianz Stadium on November 09, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Things would go from being average to being terrible shortly after, with Max Jorgensen breaking free in the 84^th minute to give the Wallabies a huge win.

A lot has changed since this game, and it was a catalyst for a lot of unhappiness in England, and spurred Australia on to some surprisingly good games, given their low expectations going into Autumn.

Wales 19 – 24 Fiji

CARDIFF, WALES – NOVEMBER 10: Vuate Karawalevu of Fiji dives in to score a try, which is later disallowed after a TMO Review concludes a forward pass in the build up, during the Autumn Nations Series 2024 match between Wales and Fiji at the Principality Stadium on November 10, 2024 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

From one disgruntled UK nation to another. Wales’ defeat at the hands of Fiji was a low point in what has been a low year for them.

Before the game, Fiji had never won away in Wales, which was their hosts’ 10^th consecutive defeat at the time.

The visitors pulled away with 15 to go and never looked back, with the most worrying thing being the lack of fight shown by their opponents.

Caleb Muntz had an outstanding performance, and Warren Gatland’s men have since failed to break their streak, having lost convincingly to the Wallabies and Springboks.

Portugal 17 – 21 USA

American rugby is on the up, and no result shows this more than their recent win against Portugal, away in Coimbra.

The first of three wins in this year’s Autumn campaign, this is by far the best and most surprising.

Saracens hooker Kapeli Pifeleti went over in the last couple of minutes to secure the Eagles’ victory.

Despite being at similar levels according to the World Rugby Rankings, there was and is still a gap in quality between the two, and if America can continue to get results like this against European tier 2 nations, there is no reason why they cannot push on and keep going up the rankings.

Netherlands 20 – 17 Chile

Perhaps the most shocking result came from The Netherlands, who beat Chile in Amsterdam.

Although they got hammered in the World Cup, Chile is still considered to be a good tier 2 level nation but results like this are a sad indictment of how far they have fallen recently.

Praise must go to The Netherlands, who are quickly joining Georgia as the best of the rest in Europe.

Delta star Daan van der Avoird and Cardiff Met’s Vikas Meijer combined for all 20 points in the win against Chile and showed that the Oranje mean business.

Italy 11 – 29 New Zealand

TURIN, ITALY – NOVEMBER 23: Patrick Tuipulotu of New Zealand is tackled by Sebastian Negri and Ross Vintcent of Italy during the Autumn Nations Series 2024 match between Italy and New Zealand at the Allianz Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Turin, Italy. (Photo by Francesco Scaccianoce/Getty Images)

The underdog All Blacks got a surprising win against Italy in Turin (only joking). This result is a surprise due to the small margin of victory for New Zealand.

Having beaten Italy by a 96-17 scoreline in the World Cup last year, many expected another result which reflected the evident gap in quality.

However, a combination of Italian grit and a lack of All Blacks desire meant that there was only 18 points in it this time round.

The scoreline flattered New Zealand too, with a late Beauden Barrett try making it look a lot more convincing than it actually was.

A 79-point margin turned into an 18-point one in the space of a year, this means that if they are to play next year, Italy could well win by 43 points.

Romania 25 – 15 Tonga

A perfect example of a perceived ‘bigger’ nation who are currently in a massive lull, Tonga’s defeat at the hands of Romania started off a winless Autumn, also losing to the USA and Georgia.

Tonga managed to beat the same opposition only last year, by a comfortable margin of 45-24, and after seeing this being turned into a defeat in only 12 months will have caused alarm bells to ring for ‘Ikale Tahi.

A few big wins for Romania this year show an upwards trajectory, and along with The Netherlands they are arguably the most exciting emerging nation coming out of Europe.

Diminutive Alin Conache starred against Tonga, kicking three penalties, and the largely domestic makeup of their side offers hope for the future of rugby in Romania.