There’s no hiding from the fact that losing Liam Williams would be a major blow to Wales. It would have been hard to imagine saying that just 12 months ago.
But Liam has shown the most improvement out of any other member of the Welsh squad over the last year and was set to be a starter at the World Cup.
Not only have Wales lost a wing who always seems to create scoring chances, they have also lost an even better full-back.
I’ve argued before that Liam should start in his more natural 15 position and Wales should shift Leigh Halfpenny to the wing, where his pace can be better used.
Now Liam has been ruled out for ten weeks and that takes him right up to the day Warren Gatland names his squad. So what to do?
Do you gamble and pick a guy who was a key player but will be off-the-pace or look elsewhere?
I would love to see Liam in the squad but that’s what the next two months – and two games against Ireland – will decide.
Trying to look on the positive side, this news should prove a kick up the backside for the other back-three players and signal the green light that there is a place up for grabs, not just in the squad, but in the team.
If we were facing England or Australia next week, then I would pick Alex Cuthbert at 14 for the sake of his experience alone.
Alex has played in the biggest matches for Wales and the British Lions and he has a decent scoring record against the big teams.
But there is no doubt that, for whatever reason, he is struggling with form.
There was a glimmer of confidence in the final game of the season when he scored twice for Cardiff Blues.
But he failed to cross the line in 11 of his 14 games for the club last season and was well and truly elbowed out of the Wales team by Williams.
Perhaps this will be all the motivation he needs to really work hard and reclaim that No. 14 jersey that looked at one point as though it would be his for a long time.
Then there are three young wings who – if I was them – would be bristling with excitement from a purely selfish point of view.
Hallam Amos, Eli Walker and Tom James all have something very different to offer.
Hallam is a strong lad but has great feet for such a big guy. Plus he can play full-back.
I have known Eli for a long time, since he came through the ranks at the Ospreys. He has something that terrifies all defences, sheer pace, he’s lightning. Then we have Tom James who has, perhaps, been rewarded for a return to Wales after signing to join Cardiff Blues.
Tom is a real athlete and has matured a lot since playing in a very good Exeter Chiefs side.
I imagine all three will get some game time against the Irish over the coming months. After all, that is what these warm-up games are all about aren’t they?
Give some youngsters a chance to show if they can cut it at that level and who knows, perhaps you will come up with a hidden gem right before the World Cup.
As for full-back, well it doesn’t even bare thinking about if anything happened to Halfpenny.
He is one of our genuine world stars. He has been so consistent over the past four years, he is brave, dynamic and an absolutely top-level kicker.
The thought of losing him makes me shiver. Perhaps Gatland should just wrap him up in cotton wool right now after losing Williams.
I know he won’t but Gatland must now start looking at a second option for 15.
This is when you start looking at utility players such as Gareth Anscombe, James Hook and, dare I say, Matthew Morgan.
Anscombe looks to be carrying more favour right now with the management team but has been part of a Cardiff Blues side that has struggled.
I’ve seen first-hand with Ospreys, Wales and the Lions what a wonderful player Hook is. I still feel he should have had far more caps by now. He is clearly not at the forefront of Gatland’s plans, but he can do a good job at full-back with a great kicking game.
Who knows? Saying all that, perhaps Liam Williams can recover in time.
The timing of the injury could not have been crueller and this summer will be a mental test as much as physical.
These training camps are when all the conditioning work is done and it will be easy for him to feel frustrated at slipping behind the rest.
But he’s a strong lad, mentally and physically, and hopefully he can still make it.