Nick Cain assesses the dramatic fight for survival at the bottom of the Premiership

If relegation is meant to be all about dull, unambitious, lock-tight rugby then London Welsh and Sale have not been listening. Nor, for that matter, have London Irish or Worcester, the other contestants in what has developed into a four-way Premiership battle to avoid the drop with only a seven-point span separating them after the dust had settled last weekend on Round 15 of the 22-round regular season fixtures.
While the shoot-out at the Kassam Stadium last Sunday between the 10th-placed Welsh Exiles and back markers Sale was inevitably billed as ‘Perma-tan v Fancy Dan’ in reference to their former celeb fly-halves, Gavin Henson and Danny Cipriani, it was a match that was anything but frivolous.
In terms of cut-and-thrust and ferocious commitment it stood alongside the two top end encounters on a red letter weekend for the Premiership, with Harlequins securing a 25-21 victory over Leicester at The Stoop which saw the champions go back to the top, and a humdinger at Adams Park where Wasps squeezed home 33-29 against Gloucester.
In the end London Welsh had to make do with a losing bonus point after being pipped 26-25.
However, with Henson’s outstanding passing skills – including a small floated lay-off to set up wing Phil MacKenzie’s try – and Henson and scrum-half Alex Davies nailing their goal-kicks, there is no sense that they are a team which will quietly bow out.

Cipriani also displayed signs of the flair and speed that made him a Test player before his celebrity diversion, sparking the move that resulted in a try for scrum-half Will Cliff.  Yet, despite Cipriani’s timely reminder of his talent, the main catalyst for Sale’s two recent league wins is Daniel Braid, their newly-acquired former All Black openside flanker.
Braid is industrious, tough, and smart, as the line he took onto Cameron Shepherd short pass to score Sale’s second try illustrated, and the Kiwi shows all the signs of being the leader that Sale have been crying out for.
The margin of 11th-placed London Irish’s 40-16 loss at Bath suggests that confidence is fragile despite their surprise victory over Saracens, but the fact that they were only 23-16 behind until Jon Fisher’s late yellow card reduced them to 14 men for the third time in the match, tells us there were extenuating circumstances to the two late tries they conceded.
The Irish also scored the best try of the round with a sweeping end to end move spearheaded by Marlon Yarde, carried on by Ian Humphreys, and rounded off by a tremendous burst from Jack Moates, their replacement scrum-half.
Worcester’s points cushion was slashed by their 27-18 defeat at home to Northampton – their fourth league loss on the bounce. It hauled the 9th-placed side back into relegation contention before Friday night’s set-to with Gloucester. The failure of the Worcester pack to match the Saints power up front will be a significant concern for coach Richard Hill with difficult games to come against play-off contenders Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins, as well as away visits to relegation battlers London Irish and London Welsh.
The Worcester example highlights how the seven match Premiership run-in is fraught with pitfalls for the four teams fighting relegation. Nor was their cause helped by a four point win being reduced to a single losing bonus point by a controversial last-minute penalty try consigning them to a 29-23 defeat at Gloucester on Friday night.

London Welsh’s best chance is to maintain their habit of springing the occasional ambush, home or away, and the return of Henson from injury alongside the recent addition of two Pumas, rugged back five forward Julio Farias Cabello and centre Gonzalo Tiesi, should help them to do so. Although they face four tough away games in succession, the Welsh have been adept at picking up losing bonus points against mid-table opponents – and they also have the advantage of their last two games being potentially decisive matches against basement rivals London Irish and Worcester.
However, if coming out ahead in shoot-outs between relegation candidates is the way to salvation, then the balance of fixtures couldn’t have fallen better for London Irish. They are the only side to play all three of their fellow strugglers, and every game is at the Madejski. The downside is that they start with Wasps and finish at Leicester, with awkward away games at Northampton and Exeter in between. Whether the relatively untested pairing of Aussie scrum-half Pat Phibbs and Irish fly-half Ian Humphreys can guide them through the stormy seas is the big survival question.
Last but not least, Sale have serious odds to overcome, Especially after failing to pick up a losing bonus point in their home loss at the hands of Harlequins on Friday, with the champions winning 30-21. Sale face two more clubs fighting for a top four play-off in Leicester and Wasps, they have to travel to London Irish, and they have to come away with points against clubs chasing Heineken Cup qualification in Bath, Gloucester and Northampton.
Despite the odds, Sale have the most star-spangled squad of the four clubs. With Henry Thomas back from injury, Richie Gray getting back to his galloping best, Andy Powell or Richie Vernon at No.8,  the New Zealand Test credentials of Braid and Sam Tuitupou, and the attacking threat of Cipriani, Mark Cueto and Rob Miller, the south Manchester club have the capacity to raise their game.

They will have to because it is finely poised. The evidence is, however, the combatants appear to have decided that their best chance is to play their way out of trouble rather than shut down with a defensive, kicking game.
The annual relegation struggle has its detractors, most of whom argue that financial protection for investors is paramount. They conveniently overlook that clubs relegated previously from the top tier have not gone into freefall, with Harlequins, Northampton and Worcester returning to the Premiership in better shape than they left it, Newcastle looking as if they are about to do the same, and Leeds, Bristol, Bedford, and Rotherham mid-table or above in the Championship. The only exceptions to the rule are Richmond, who went bankrupt, and West Hartlepool, whose overspending hamstrung them.
The meritocratic results-based format in the English league leaves the franchise system for dead as a model for professional sport in terms of tension, vibrancy and involvement of players and fans.
The reality of protected franchise systems like the Super 15 in the Southern Hemisphere, and the Rabodirect Pro12 for the Welsh, Irish, Scots and Italians, is that by the mid-point of the season there is nothing to galvanize the teams in the last third of the table. They are like donkeys plodding towards a distant water-hole after the thoroughbreds have sprinted past them, but they are in no hurry because they know it will always be full.
This translates into predictable results, with the tailenders usually succumbing as expected, meaning that for nearly half the teams in the competition the season meanders to a finish.
That is occasionally a danger in the Premiership if the bottom team are not sufficiently competitive. However, having side-stepped the ring-fencers, Exeter and London Welsh have proved that teams promoted from the Championship are no easy-beats and have ensured that the battle at the bottom end of the league is every bit as enthralling as that at the top.