Nick Cain looks at the current status of the Heineken Cup

If there was ever a time for the English clubs to emphasise that they are the real deal and not the ‘Great Pretenders’ of European rugby, then it is now. With the future of the Heineken Cup in the balance, with the English and French arguing for reform and the Celts and Italians resisting it, we are in the midst of a battle which extends from the stadia of the European elite to the board rooms, where the opposing ranks of suits seek to get the upper hand in the power-play which will decide the map of club/provincial rugby in Europe for the forseeable future.
With the Premiership failing to produce a Heineken Cup-winning side in the five years since Wasps were again crowned champions of Europe after the all-Premiership final of 2007 against Leicester – the longest English absence from the final before that was two years – their New Year’s resolution has to be another English winner, or at worst a French one. It might appear a primitive bargaining chip, but it is definitely one which would strengthen the hand of the Anglo-French negotiators, posting a timely reminder that they are easily the most consistently successful nations in the tournament since its inception in 1996, producing 11 of the 17 champion clubs/ provinces (England 6, France 5, Ireland 6).
The history of rugby politics is littered with instances where strength on the field translates into muscle off it, and as we preview the last two rounds of the pool stages this month, the English are well placed for a comeback, while the traditional Irish champions of the Celtic-Italian alliance, Leinster and Munster, are in an exposed position.
This time the English have come prepared. Instead of proclaiming that the Premiership is the most competitive league in the world, only to go into battle with a tramp-steamer which fires coconuts at its Celtic Pro12 enemies, they now have a gun-boat – and diplomacy is not top of the agenda. The cannon-balls are flying. The English finished Round 4 with three teams – Saracens, Leicester and Harlequins – at the top of their pools, with Northampton also in with an outside chance of making the quarter-finals.
The French are also well-placed with Clermont Auvergne and Toulon topping their pools with close to maximum points, and Toulouse are still capable of upsetting Leicester’s applecart. Montpellier and Castres are also still in wildcard territory if they win their remaining two matches.
That leaves Ulster as the only Pro12 leader in the six pools, and even then they had some of the wind knocked from their sails when Northampton earned an unexpected nip-and-tuck win at Ravenhill in the last round. As usual, the Irish are the Pro12 standard-bearers with Ulster in the vanguard, and although it is too soon to write off Leinster and Munster, both need bonus point wins in their remaining two pool matches to put themselves into quarter-final contention, most likely as runners-up.
The Cup-fighting credentials of Leinster and Munster suggests that the bonus point wins they need to haul themselves into the knock-out stages are not beyond them – and if they get to the last eight with the momentum of the great escape behind them then no-one will fancy the hosting rights.
Leinster v Scarlets (January 12)/Exeter v Leinster (January 19)
After their back-to-back losses to Clermont, Leinster have been boosted by the return from injury of their 2009 Lions Test trio, Brian O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney and Luke Fizgerald. The increased strike power they bring means that the holders, at home, are capable of a bonus point victory over the Scarlets this weekend that is essential to their survival, giving them a lifeline on 15 points.
Achieve that, and the acid test for Leinster will come  in a fortnight when they visit an Exeter Chiefs side which not only held them to 9-6 in Dublin, but were unlucky not to return to Devon with the scalp of the three-time champions. Coach Rob Baxter has the buccanneering spirit to fancy snatching Clermont’s monumental 53 match unbeaten record at the Stade Marcel Michelin on Saturday evening, but, unless they catch the men in yellow having a kip, it is extremely unlikely.
However, the Chiefs are in a position to do the Premiership and Top 14 qualifiers for the quarter-finals a huge favour by cutting off Leinster’s last avenue into the quarter-finals at Sandy Lane. If Leinster arrive having done a number on the Scarlets, Exeter will have to beat them, or deny them a bonus point win, because Leinster will struggle to be a best runner-up on 19 points. Another point and they might be in the running, so Baxter’s bruisers will have to be at their bloody-minded best.

Racing v Saracens (January 12)/Edinburgh v Munster (January 13)
Munster’s road is equally fraught with pitfalls, although their three-way tussle with Saracens (14 points) and Racing Metro (12 points) is finely balanced, with the Irish province on 11 points after their honours even double-header against the English outfit. Munster need a bonus point win at Edinburgh on Sunday to change the running order, and they will have the advantage of knowing the outcome of ‘le crunch’ between Racing and Saracens in Nantes (Saturday) before they play.
If Saracens were to win in France – and Racing may have helped them by shipping the match to Brittany – then a home victory over Edinburgh in two weeks, both without bonus points, would give them 22 points. That would almost certainly clinch Sarries a prized home quarter-final, but come away from the Stade Beaujoire without a losing bonus point and they could put Munster or Racing in pole position going into the last round. Saracens have to win on the road again to make sure that they decide their own destiny, because stranger things have happened than a potential Pool 1 decider at Thomond Park against Racing resulting in another five pointer for Munster, and a
21-point total.
It is finely poised, whichever way you look at it, but the good news is that at least Saracens v Edinburgh and Munster v Racing kick-off simultaneously in the final round.
Harlequins v Connacht (January 12)
By not looking the Pool 3 gift-horse in the mouth, Harlequins had all but booked their place in the quarter-finals after finishing Round 4 as the only club in the tournament on 19 points – one better than Toulon and Clermont – helped by two half century hammerings of Zebre. In the process, they nailed the point that no European elite tournament should feature a team which is so obviously out of  their depth as the Italian amalgamation, with the Quins director of rugby, Conor O’Shea, drawing attention to the fact that if the Amlin Cup has been good enough for Harlequins – who have won it three times – it should be good enough for Zebre.
All that the English champions require now is another four points from their remaining matches, at home against Connacht on Saturday, or away at Biarritz the following Friday (Jan 18), for a home quarter-final berth, but there is a cautionary footnote. Having had their Heineken hopes dashed by Connacht last season, there should be no danger of the Quins, young or old, thinking it’s a done thing, especially as the rugged Irish side gave them no respite in October despite losing 30-22 at the Sportsground.
One of the few Harlequins bad habits is a tendency to go wide before they have done the hard yards up the middle. That’s why O’Shea could do worse than drum it into his team that its better to clinch it at The Stoop with a no-quarter given attitude, than trip up trying to gift-wrap it in front of their own supporters – and then have to gnaw their nails on the trip back from Biarritz to see if they get into the last eight, let alone a home seeding.
Ospreys v Leicester (Jan 13)/Leicester v Toulouse (Jan 20)
Where Quins have romped away with the easiest pool, Leicester’s perch at the top of Pool 2 is more tenuous. The Tigers biggest statement so far was their 39-22 victory over the Ospreys at Welford Road in October, when a late three-try volley gave a lop-sided impression of a match in which the Welsh region led until the last ten minutes.
The Ospreys chances of further involvement hinge on them kicking on from their 17-6 home win over an incredibly lacklustre Toulouse, to send Leicester packing on Sunday. The best way to do that is to subdue the Tigers pack, and, even with the addition of Kiwi tighthead, Campbell Johnstone, on loan from Biarritz, they will find that a tough assignment. Win without a bonus point, or allow Leicester a losing bonus point, and the Ospreys will still be a point behind Leicester (14 points), while Toulouse, assuming they win at home against Benneton Treviso, will leapfrog the Tigers to go into the final round on top (17 points).
That scenario means a winner-take-all showdown between Leicester and Toulouse at Welford Road, when the French giants will be tooled-up and unrecognizeable from the team that stumbled to defeat at the Liberty Stadium. Whatever the outcome of that one, it is almost certain that only one team will make the quarter-finals from the toughest pool.
Overview
The odds are stacked against Northampton making further progress in Pool 4, with their road to salvation requiring bonus point wins  at home against Castres on Friday night, and then away at Glasgow, and their try-scoring rate does not lend itself to that outcome. It also depends on Ulster losing one of their remaining games against the same opponents and, while that is possible, the likelihood is that Ulster’s runaway bonus-point win at Franklin’s Gardens will prove decisive – unless Castres play their first team and unleash an unlikely double knock-out.
As for Saracens, Leicester, and Harlequins, the message is clear. Take care of business in Round 5, and Round 6, with all its tortuous mathematical permutations, will take care of itself, leaving the English clubs with their healthiest quarter-final contingent since 2009 – and more power to their political elbow.