Jeremy Guscott: Lions place is Sexton’s to lose in Six Nations

Jonathan Sexton is in pole position to be the Lions first pick for the Test No.10 shirt now that his main rival, Wales fly-half Rhys Priestland, is injured. At the start of the season the names in Warren Gatland‘s fly-half pot were probably Sexton, Priestland, Dan Biggar Toby Flood, Owen Farrell and as outsiders, Jonny Wilkinson and Freddie Burns.
With Priestland snapping his Achilles’ tendon in the Scarlets defeat at Exeter last weekend, there is one fewer contender. The most objective statistics to use in any assessment of the remaining No.10s are those from domestic club appearances because they give us a better comparison of week in week out performances, and because not everyone played the Autumn Internationals.
Sexton’s kicking percentages are as good as any, and this is a crucial area. Having a consistent kicker keeps the scoreboard ticking over, and consistently edging three points ahead is important. It plays psychologically on the opposition seeing a score creep up 3, 6, 9, 12, as England did to NZ in their last game of the autumn series.
Sexton has the best defensive stats, and although he’s played the fewest games a high 90 percent tackle success rate is very impressive, and what most players should be aiming for.
Wilkinson, as expected, has the highest goal-kicking percentage, and if it remains that way for the rest of the season that stat will definitely catch the eye of the Lions selectors.
Burns has the next best kicking stats, which is impressive considering the improvement he has made since last season. Attacking-wise the Gloucester fly-half has made a lot of metres, but that’s no surprise given the way he likes to play with ball in hand. The downside is that he has turned the ball over the most.
Biggar is another who likes to have a crack, and he has made 228 meters with the ball in hand. The Ospreys No.10 also has close to an 83 per cent tackle rate, but, again, he has turned the ball over a fair bit.
When you compare the young guns like Burns and Biggar to older hands such as Sexton, James Hook, Wilkinson and Flood, you can see that the guys with plenty of international experience are relatively steady and tend to pass the ball more rather than make the yards themselves.
Putting the statisics to one side and looking on as an observer, Sexton has finally found his groove and got the O’Gara monkey off his back by claiming the Irish fly-half jersey as first choice. Declan Kidney has made Sexton No.1, and rightly so.
Sexton’s performance for Leinster in the Heineken Cup final victory over Northampton two seasons ago saw him move up a level in class and really start to push O’Gara. He ran the show, contributing 28 of Leinster’s points, including two tries, three conversions, and four penalties.
Sexton reminds me a bit of Stephen Jones, and look how well he played for the 2009 Lions in South Africa. Sexton is more measured than he is flamboyant, and he’s no spring chicken at 27 and should really be coming into his prime. He’s been playing internationals only since 2009, and has now started 26 of the 34 he has played. He’s managed to hog the Irish No.10 jersey for most of 2012 and has shown he’s the man for the next few years, with Ulster‘s Paddy Jackson set to do the chasing.
Although the game against Argentina was one-sided, Ireland made it that way, and Sexton brought the players around him into the game well and controlled the play like a real ring leader. That kind of performance is what he has to bring into the Six Nations otherwise questions about his ability to run the game will be raised.
Sexton knows he is more than capable of doing that because of his role in Leinster winning three Heineken Cup titles, and now he needs to bring the same match-winning qualities into his games for Ireland.
It’s between Hook and Biggar who gets the nod at fly-half for the Welsh Six Nations campaign, and there is a divided opinion. Biggar has stayed in Wales, and, with the Welsh stance on overseas players, by rights he should start. He’s had a good season for Ospreys despite the poor start they had, and was pushing for a start in the autumn series because his form was better than Priestland’s.
It didn’t happen, and Biggar hasn’t really stood out in his rare outings starting for Wales. For instance, the 2011World Cup warm-up game against Argentina was a disaster and it set him back a long way. He’s got the skills and if he gets his chance he has to nail it, because in a team with competition for places, if the team loses and you miss your kicks and tackles, and the team doesn’t score tries, the microscope hovers over No.10.
Hook will be gagging having moved to Perpignan to play fly-half, and he’s gone well and played a lot of games. His tackle percentage of around 82 per cent could be better, but at least he’s a regular 10 in a traditionally strong team who are eighth in the top 14.
Hook missed his opportunity in Wales after playing behind Henson and Biggar at Ospreys, but he is such a good footballer he still played well at centre. I believe he’s the right shout for Wales, and they should give him his head, let him run the plays, and his natural talent will set the Welsh backline on fire.
England have three contenders, with Farrell and Flood the default choices and Burns the flying rookie. Burns has to play a part in the Six Nations otherwise he’s unlikely to be picked as a Lion – unless he goes as the traditional uncapped pick.
Burns’ club form suggests that he should start for England, but after Farrell did so well behind a team that produced quick ball against the All Blacks I cannot see Stuart Lancaster dropping him, despite him not playing regularly enough at fly-half for Sarries.
Flood has to fight his way back in, and even then I don’t think Gatland will go for him with the others to chose from.
Wilkinson has made a statement of intent, saying how fantastic it would be to go on another Lions tour to Australia, and add the Lions series victory that is missing from his playing CV. He has a great chance, his kicking is still impeccable and he is enjoying playing with the Toulon galacticos. Wilkinson wouldn’t be a bad player to have on tour if he’s become more vocal, because he’s a very experienced player who has won big before.
The Lions need confident, in-form high achievers to win against Australia. The majority of the squad will be picked from the Six Nations, and that means we should have a fantastic tournament to look forward to.
Sexton has the jersey right now, but there’s still a long way to go for him to keep it.