Jeremy Guscott: Finn’s big question is can he keep Ireland guessing

Finn Russell will be a big part of how Scotland do against Ireland in next weekend’s Six Nations game in Edinburgh, and the fly-half will be a main influence in whether they take the next step to becoming a competitive force in the tournament.
Scotland have been talked about, whether loud or quiet, internal or external, about when, where, and how they are going to turn over a top team – and then back it up with another big win.
Russell’s influence has grown in a Glasgow side which are going great guns, both in Europe and in the PRO12. With that comes an expectation on him to deliver, but like any fly-half he can only do what he does – which is to unlock defences by playing flat, and using his footwork or passing – if he is given the right ball.
Russell is prepared to give it a blast, but he is not as mercurial as a Carlos Spencer or Quade Cooper, because with the chances they took those guys could lose as many games for the teams they played for as they won.
Thankfully, Russell does not have the same risk factor as them, but nor does he have that same match-winning legacy that there is with established fly-halves like Owen Farrell and Jonny Sexton. The Scotland No.10 is not yet at the level they are at, where he is so indispensible that they would not have won international matches without his input.
Russell comes across as a well-balanced character, and maybe that’s because a few years ago he was working as a stonemason. Being in that everyday working-man’s environment helps to keep you down-to-earth and is a good grounding for dealing with the pressure of international sport. That’s why it is unlikely that he will buckle under the weight of expectation from the Scottish fans and media of a revival that has been a long time coming.
Like all fly-halves, Russell is dependent on the service he receives from his scrum-half – and for Scotland, Greig Laidlaw is more of a passer/kicker than a runner. Laidlaw very rarely makes a break, and that means that defences tend to migrate away from him towards fly-halves like Russell.
However, the consitency of Laidlaw’s service combined with Russell’s elusiveness allows him to shuffle the deck outside him – and when you have centres of the ability of Duncan Taylor, Alex Dunbar, Huw Jones and Matt Scott, you’ve got every incentive to do so. Add to that a back three that includes strike runners as dangerous as Tommy Seymour, Sean Maitland, Tim Visser and Stuart Hogg, and you are the string-puller for a serious backline.
If I was part of it, I’d be saying to myself, ‘why aren’t we going to win’? The only thing Russell then has to do is to deliver the right ball, in the right place, at the right time, and bring that backline to the boil.
At 24, Russell has 22 caps, but from his eight Six Nations caps he has only a 25 per cent win ratio (compared to 55 per cent overall). His challenge this season is to stand that on its head while searching for a place on the top shelf with Sexton and Farrell – and turning the talk about him being selected in the Lions tour party into reality.
It all starts with the big opener against Sexton, and Ireland, and what Russell is coming to terms with is being in the face of defenders and working out when to let the ball go, when to thread it through, and when to go himself.
The X-factor with fly-halves like Russell is to threaten defences by keeping them guessing. Good attacking 10s command defences with the deception that pulls them in, pushes them back, or makes them freeze. His kicking, especially the big clearances, could be better, but he has enough in the locker to mix it up.
Russell backs himself, which I like. It’s very tempting for a fly-half to sit back and pass, or kick left to right, but there are very few who are consistently good at that – just as there are very few can play in the face of the defence like he can. He’s four-fifths there in terms of skill set, and what comes next is that knowledge of when to pull the trigger.
There are no traps for him against Ireland that he has not dealt with before. Russell will have to deal with the power of Robbie Henshaw but he won’t flinch there because his defence is solid. He will also have to do work on not getting any mental blips, and losing momentum.
Russell’s execution sets the tempo, and he will not back down from doing what he thinks works. It’s that which could enable Scotland to win three games in this Six Nations tournament. That should be the ambition this time, and a big part of whether they achieve it will depend on the direction that Russell brings in the 10 shirt.