Jeremy Guscott column: Gregor Townsend could be Warren Gatland’s most important Lions pick

I have been watching and waiting for Wales to get a foothold in the international game again – and just when you think they’ll do it, they fall short. That was the story of their recent tour of New Zealand, and it was the same during the World Cup when they couldn’t finish the job against South Africa.
Some teams are guilty of white line fever, where too many times one player thinks they can smash through three tacklers rather than chilling and working it out. That is Wales at the moment, and it is one reason why they rarely break through the Southern Hemisphere barrier, whether at home or away.
For 60 minutes in the first Test against New Zealand they were as competitive as any side, and did everything but win. But when I see Wales fall away in the last 15 minutes because they seem to be struggling for fitness, it bothers me. Whereas we saw England use their bench dynamically and effectively against Australia, the Welsh did not – and in the last 15 minutes of all three Tests they allowed New Zealand to pull away.
Given the quality of the Welsh side, with players of the calibre of George North, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Taulupe Faletau, Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones, the whole package should produce more.
The Welsh skill level is good, if not quite the quality of the All Blacks, and they have the execution in attack to trouble anyone. However, in defence they could not hold out against New Zealand in the way that England did against Australia. That has a lot to do with the ability of the All Blacks, but when you look at the way in which James Haskell left everything out there for England in the second Test against the Wallabies, Wales were unable to raise their defensive effort to that level.
How does Warren Gatland get more out of this squad? Well, there’s the autumn series, and then the 2017 Lions tour – and if that isn’t an incentive then nothing is. Unless Wales improve, despite having had the lions share in selection for two tours (2009 and 2013), some of their established players could find themselves surplus to requirements.
I rate all their 2013 Lions highly, and when you add Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb and Samson Lee to the line-up, then you think this Welsh side should do real damage. However, they struggled to get defensive momentum sometimes, which is hard to work out. You cannot blame the Pro12 because over the last decade it has produced a lot of Lions, but Welsh players are perhaps being affected by their regional sides not being very competitive in Europe, and also, last season, not doing well in the Pro12 either.
In my time with England over 13 years we won four Grand Slams, which is not a great return, while in eight years Warren Gatland has won two with Wales. I rate this Welsh side as highly as that England side in terms of skill, but psychological strength is probably the difference.
Wales have areas to work on. Their scrum-halves, Webb and Gareth Davies, are pretty exciting, but I feel that at fly-half Biggar could do more to get his backline going. Where Australia play the ball too much in their own half, Biggar kicks a lot and collects a lot – but given runners with the power of  Davies, North and Roberts, it’s an area the Welsh could work on.
Sides are often ready for Roberts, but it’s rare we see him offload, and while Davies and North have done some good running we need to see more creativity. Instead, it’s all a bit two-dimensional and direct in attack, rather than deceptive.
Wales were competitive in one and a third of their tests against the All Blacks, and should be doing better. For me, the only Welsh player who hits the heights regularly is Faletau, who I consider to be the best in the world, even above Kieran Read.
It was great to see Ireland win a Test in South Africa, even if the series slipped away. It was a lost opportunity, and one a more experienced side would have taken. The Irish have to finish opportunities off, but they suffer from a shallow talent pool.
England’s 3-0 result over Australia was phenomenal, and although Eddie Jones might be right when he says that at the moment they wouldn’t have more than one or two in a World XV, it will grow if they can back it up by beating South Africa and Australia in the autumn.
At the moment England are holding all the Lions trump cards, and it’s up to the others to knock them off the number one spot. That means they have only the autumn internationals and the Six Nations in which to do it – only eight games.
England have set a really high performance level, with Maro Itoje putting in impressive, effective performances, Owen Farrell keeping his cool, and Jonathan Joseph showing his defensive ability. On top of that, Dan Cole found his mojo, Dylan Hartley was integral to the set piece success, and the Vunipola brothers, Mako and Billy, have benefited from conditioning of the highest order.
Even so, I don’t see chinks in New Zealand’s armour. They produce player after player who step in as if nothing has happened. You could not give New Zealand 70 per cent possession like England did to Australia in Melbourne if you wanted to win. We also have to ask if there is an exciting, creative attack coach like Wayne Smith in the home unions – and the answer is yes, Gregor Townsend, so let’s hope Gatland picks him.
Gatland’s coaching experience will be a massive advantage for the Lions in New Zealand. I went on three Lions tours with Ian McGeechan, who was meticulous in studying the opposition – and it’s why we won in Australia in 1989 and South Africa in 1997, and should have beaten New Zealand in 1993.
What the Lions have to decide is whether they have got a squad which can take New Zealand on at their own game, or whether they have got a pack that can put them under the cosh.
My view is that they have the forward power, and if the Lions backline is also very precise, then they can trouble the All Blacks.
You need incredible fitness – at least to the level New Zealand play at – and then to be a side which is psychologically strong and can adapt on the move.