Heading into the finale of the pool stages, there are six quarter-final places still up for grabs in the Rugby World Cup, with just England and Wales having confirmed their progression.
This does lead to the exciting, if unrealistic possibility, of the most preposterous weekend in any sporting World Cup, let alone rugby, history, where we could theoretically see any of Uruguay, Italy, Scotland, Australia, and Samoa qualify.
Whilst we’re much more likely to see a more set of familiar faces, here are all the permutations you need to know, both probable and seemingly impossible, as we head into the last round of pool stage games at RWC 2023.
Pool A
The overwhelmingly likely outcome is that France and New Zealand will win their respective games against Italy and Uruguay to keep Pool A’s standings as they are.
However, those who support countries in Pool B can dream of an Italian or Uruguayan resurgence to set up an easier route to the semi-finals.
An Italian victory over France would provoke disbelief in Paris and Azzurri qualification, unless Les Bleus were able to take two bonus points from the game – one for four tries and one for losing by less than seven.
A team winning without a bonus point while their opposition gets two has only happened on one previous occasion in the tournament, when South Africa were stunned by Japan in 2015, and though the Italians ran France close earlier this year their defeat to New Zealand last week means this would join the “The Brighton Miracle” as one of rugby union’s greatest upsets.
Even less likely than that would be Uruguay smashing New Zealand by 80 points without conceding four tries, and Italy gaining no points to see the South Americans go through on points difference ahead of them.
There could also be the possibility of France, New Zealand, and Italy finishing on 15 points each. In this case, New Zealand would go top on points difference.
However, another bizarre quirk of World Rugby’s rulings would see Italy go through regardless of points differenc, over France on head-to-head; when there is a three-way tie, the first spot is dictated by points difference, whilst the second is by head-to-head.
Pool B
Despite fewer possibilities than Pool A, Pool B could be home to huge controversy and all eyes are on the seismic Ireland clash against Scotland.
Tonga vs Romania is a consequential dead rubber, aside from the possibility of Romania producing the worst World Cup performance in history if they lose by 48 points or more and fail to score four tries.
South Africa, having finished their pool campaign with three wins out of four, sit on 15 points. Ireland avoiding defeat will see them top the group and South Africa follow in second place.
Whilst an uphill battle, Scotland could very feasibly qualify: the simplest way would be with a victory that restricts Ireland to no bonus point.
A bonus point win, whilst preventing Ireland from a second bonus point, regardless of points difference will also see the Scots qualify. Ireland getting two points out of the game would see them top the pool on 16, with Scotland heading out on head to head to South Africa – both on 15.
A bonus point win for the Scots by a margin of 21+ points will secure top spot. However, it is the unlikely possibility that Ireland lose by that 21+ point margin that has dominated social media speculation this week.
As the above table shows, if both sides had scored four tries or more and Ireland were trailing by more than seven points, it would be in Ireland’s best interests for Scotland to pass a 21-point margin. By doing this, Scotland would take the top spot on points difference. The precedence for second place would change to head-to-head, and Ireland would move ahead South Africa.
This wild idiosyncrasy could cause uproar, with South African head coach Jacques Nienaber already dropping match fixing into the conversation. Whilst unlikely, it would be an incredible situation to see Ireland 14 points down and needing to concede to secure qualification.
Pool C
With Wales qualified, and Australia’s dismal pool stage now concluded, it’s in Fiji’s hands to qualify with Georgia and Portugal both ruled out. Australia sit one point ahead of the Pacific Islanders so two bonus points, a draw, or anything better will see Fijians fly through.
However, Australia could avoid an unprecedented early exit if exciting minnows Portugal defeat Fiji, without the latter gaining a bonus point.
Another unlikely outcome is that Fiji could force their way to the top of the group if they win with a bonus point, and Wales lose without one against Georgia to set up an England vs Wales quarter final.
Pool D
Pool D is perhaps the simplest situation. Providing England – who have already secured top spot in the pool – avoid defeat, it is a straight shootout between Argentina and Japan for qualification on Sunday afternoon.
There is a situation in which a Samoa bonus point win could lead to their qualification: they’d need Argentina and Japan to draw without a bonus point, whilst securing a 29-point margin themselves.
If that doesn’t happen, Argentina would progress with any kind of draw, excluding the remote possibility that the sides are tied and Japan earn a four-try bonus point while Argentina fail to do so.
Written by Tom Jeffreys
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