Are the Premiership Final Champions All But Decided by the End of the 18 Rounds?

Gallagher Premiership Rugby clubs face a gruelling fixtures list, especially when it comes to those also competing in Europe. Still, it’s the league that everyone focuses on, from the final standings after 18 games to the Final itself. English champions are made by Premiership Rugby, and this season, there are many worthy contenders for the crown.

This season, Bath Rugby have been particularly imperious through the early stages, surging to the top of the table with their obliteration of Sale on 26 October. That 40-13 win has fans wondering if they’ll see a sixth different champion in as many years for both the regular season and play-offs, but how often do the two triumphs align?

Race for the Top Might Be Telling

The first third of the 2024/25 Premiership Rugby season has seen a close race to mount the top of the table. Even at 4-1, Bath Rugby needed that hefty win over Sale to ascend to the peak. Prior to them doing so, an old foe was sitting pretty with the top spot.

Leicester Tigers continue to opt for the brute force method of climbing the table. Knowing how important form is in rugby, Michael Cheika has opted to avoid resting players while the going is good, as The Rugby Paper reported, including for what would end up being a narrow 29-26 win over Gloucester Rugby on 20 October.

Up with Bath and Leicester after the opening stanza were the Bristol Bears and Saracens. Between the four, there were just two points to split the teams, with Bath up on 25 points and Saracens holding up the play-off places with 23. Still, even at 3-0-3, the Northampton Saints and their 14 points weren’t being counted out.

In fact, as of 29 October, the team placed seventh and nine points out of the top four bracket were at 5/1 to become the Grand Final Winner at the close of the 2024/25 season. Naturally, they trailed Bath and Saracens in the Betway Sports odds at 15/8 and 9/4, respectively. Bristol and Leicester sat out at 15/2 and 10/1 six games in.

With so much to go in the season, what we’ll see is the very telling top spot is very much up for grabs, but for now, Bath and Saracens have offered good reason to back them, but so too have the Tigers and Bears. If history and the table are anything to go by, there may even be a clash between two of the greats of Premiership Rugby.

A History of Table Toppers Taking the Crown

Leicester have been crowned English champions a total of 11 times, but six of those times came before the four-team play-off structure was introduced in 2002/03. Bath, leading in the odds, join Leicester as the other dominant force in Premiership Rugby before the new format. In that time, they won all six of their titles by topping the table.

Since then, they’ve topped the table in 2003/04 and been to two more finals, but haven’t won again. The Leicester Tigers are the proud owners of a dynastic run both before and after the format change, winning four on the bounce from 1988 to 2002 and winning three from four from 2006 to 2010.

Of course, the Tigers happened to make it to nine consecutive finals from 2004 to 2013, helping Centurion Rugby to name them the most successful club in English history. On two of those occasions, they ended atop the table but not champions. In 22 seasons, this has happened 13 times, including the immediate run of the London Wasps.

Recent History Offers Hope to Table Toppers

Helping to skew the stats towards table winners not winning the finals are the London Wasps in the 00s and Exeter from 2015/16 onwards. Exeter were a powerhouse, losing in the final to the table-topping Saracens in 2016 before beating the Wasps the following year. Then, three successive regular season triumphs results in one championship.

It was in 2019/20 that Rob Baxter and his Exeter team finally broke through, having won the league only to lose to Saracens in 2017/18 and 2018/19. They also made it to the 2021 final having not won the regular season, but lost 40-38 to Harlequins. It was this 19-13 win over the Wasps that ushered in what might be a new era for the league.

With 2019/20 included, only Bristol in 2020/21 haven’t been able to win the final after finishing first in the table in the last five years. Leicester, Saracens, and Northampton have all found the right balance to win the table and carry that momentum into the play-offs.

In 2024/25, Bath have emerged as the early frontrunners, and if they make good on their odds, they’d be tough to bet against in the play-offs if recent history is anything to go by.