An age-old problem for Farrell and Lions
NICK CAIN
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THIS time next year Andy Farrell will know if he got his selection matrix right for the 2025 Lions series against Australia, because it will either be a triumphal return for the head coach – or the Wallabies springing one of the biggest upsets in sport.
The variables at the moment are unending, mainly because the Autumn internationals and 2025 Six Nations, which will have the biggest bearing on squad selection, are still on the horizon.
The Lions captain and coaching team are also unknown, and the only sure thing is that Farrell's coaching credentials have been burnished brightly this summer by Ireland securing a drawn away series against South Africa.
It's a good reason right now for Ireland having the lion's share of seats on the plane to Australia, reinforced by the headache they gave the Springboks despite the absence of scrum-half linchpin, and playmaker, Jamison Gibson-Park. enced players intrinsic to Ireland's advance to the top of the world rankings, might be heading over the brow of the hill come next summer.
Recognising the wear-and-tear on players, as well as judging the longevity backs and back row forwards have at Test level when they lose a yard of pace, is still an inexact science. But when you combine those factors with regular dips in form, they add up to tell-tale signs that Lions coaches cannot ignore.
Brian O'Driscoll was a great player and fierce competitor, but selection on the 2013 Lions tour of Australia at 34 was not only going to be a push, but also have potential to spill over into acrimony. It became reality in a furore which saw the Irish media, and former players, slam coach Warren Gatland after he dropped O'Driscoll for the decisive final Test.
The uproar became a blot on the tour, and despite the Welsh centre pairing of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies playing a leading role in a resounding Lions victory to vindicate Gatland, it was never fully erased.
Judging by their Test 23s against South Africa, the Irish are now in similar ‘Dad's Army' territory to England in 2003. In the first Test 10 Irish players were age 30 or over, and in the side that won the second Test it was 12.
The fact that England went on to win the 2003 World Cup, and that Ireland have gone toe to toe with the Springboks again, after beating the eventual world champions in the pool stage of the 2023 World Cup, indicates that there might be plenty of fuel left in the tank.
Even so, Farrell knows that with Bundee Aki 35 by the time the Lions arrive in Australia, and Robbie Henshaw 32, he might need other midfield contingencies in the 10-12-13 axis that is so crucial to success.
At this distance Finn Russell holds the keys to number 10, but the 12-13 partnership is much more fluid. An However, the Tests against the world champions in Pretoria and Durban also shone a searchlight on potential pinch-points in Lions selection. Some of what was illuminated is that experiall-Scottish trio of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones outside Russell is one variation, while Henshaw at 12 with either Jones, Tommy Freeman, Garry Ringrose, or Ollie Lawrence at outside-centre, are other intriguing combinations. Aki might also defy father time so his partnership with Henshaw survives.
The acid test of these permutations will come this Autumn, and then in the Six Nations – with the early clashes in Rounds 1 to 3 between Ireland and England in Dublin, Scotland and Ireland in Edinburgh, and England and Scotland at Twickenham, providing answers.
