Aussies on a long road to recovery

JEREMY GUSCOTT

OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK

EXPECTATIONS in Australia will be pretty low after back-to-back defeats to South Africa in the opening rounds of the Rugby Championship, but, given the way the Wallabies played in the 2023 World Cup, there was no reason for them to be sky high heading into the tournament.

Wherever you look, rugby union Down Under is at a low ebb with participation numbers, broadcast and viewing figures, and success at international level, all on a downhill trajectory.

While there may have been a little bit of uplift after the victories over Wales and Georgia, the Springboks' 33-7 victory in Brisbane last weekend was a sharp reality check.

In particular, new Wallaby coach Joe Schmidt will know now that it's going to be hard work to get Australia back to being a consistent top four country.

To do that Schmidt will have to find new talent – and although some Australians will expect the Kiwi to move mountains, they need to be realistic about where their team is.

When possession and territory is almost even, but the opposition run with the ball for 547 metres and score five tries, as South Africa did, whereas you can only manage 284 metres and score one try, the gulf in standard is obvious.

No household names

However, it should not be surprising, because there are no household names in this Wallaby side in the way that there were during my era.

One of the names being touted that I recognised is Tom Lynagh – the son of Wallaby great Michael Lynagh – but pinning your hopes on a 21-yearold fly-half to make an immediate difference is not realistic.

This is a huge Australian rebuilding job. The first requirements are for the pack to be solid at the set-piece and restarts, to get your kick-chase in sync, and to get your defence sorted out.

Those are the foundations, and then you bring in the talent – and it means that in three years' time, you might have something.

The plus from a period like this is that it presents young players with real opportunity to grow, but for the moment Australia are in a deep hole.

They are in a similar position to Wales, and they have to keep grinding until it starts to happen.

Even though the sheer power and size of South Africa blew the Wallabies away, it was not a humiliation if you consider their 2023 World Cup exit. They also only have to look at England's turnaround over the last two years to see what gains can be made.

Huge rebuilding job

“Australia face a huge rebuilding job and coach Schmidt knows it is going to be hard work”

The reality is that while Australia will be hammered in the press, just as England were at the tail end of the Eddie Jones regime, not many people think the Wallabies are a good team – and that takes some of the pressure off.

For example, they will not be favourites to beat the Lions this time next year. How on earth can you be favourites for a series like that when you are ranked ninth in the world?

It's too easy to play the blame game over Australia's decline, and the key thing for the Wallabies going forward is that they get better, with a continuous improvement from the Lions tour through to being the host nation at the 2027 World Cup.

For anyone predicting an allround Anzac slump, New Zealand's 38-30 loss to Argentina in Wellington does not put them in the same bracket as Australia.

Just like Ireland grew in confidence after beating the All Blacks in New Zealand for the first time in 2022, the same applies to Argentina – and they showed that belief by recording their second win on NZ soil two years after their first.

It makes me think that never before have the top rugby nations been so competitive, and I do not share the view that South Africa are head and shoulders ahead of the rest.

For instance, Ireland have just beaten the Springboks in South Africa, and, following the Pumas' win over New Zealand, I cannot be more categoric about England having created the opportunities to win both Tests against the All Blacks this summer, and the need to go a step further at Twickenham when they meet again in November.

South Africa appear to be producing a lot of talented young players, but so are Ireland, France, and New Zealand. Added to that, the Rugby Championship has only just started, and although New Zealand have to go to South Africa in two weeks, I always believe that because it is one of rugby's greatest rivalries, the All Blacks will be competitive against the Springboks.

Everything would have to go South Africa's way for the two Tests to result in landslide Springbok wins.

The dominance of the 2011 and 2015 New Zealand double World Cup winners was reflected in a run of 18 successive wins, and that consistency has yet to be matched by this South Africa double World Cup-winning side.

South Africa want to play

The good news with South Africa is that with the arrival of Kiwi attack coach Tony Brown, they not only want to win, they want to play.

The Springboks have had an exciting back line in their back pocket for a long time, with talents like Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, and Makazole Mapimpi involved since 2019, but with the arrival of young fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, the flow seems to have changed.

Maybe head coach Rassie Erasmus wants to test their ability to play an expansive game, as well as a power game.

There's also talk that Erasmus picked a second team for yesterday's second Test against the Wallabies in Perth – well, if that's a second team, it's a bloody good one.

Looking ahead to the next round when South Africa host New Zealand, the Springboks could win those Tests by 20 points, but it's unlikely – especially as the only measure is their display against a poor Wallaby line-up.

New Zealand will never become a bad team overnight, because there's too much talent to write them off. As for Australia, they are playing to their ranking.

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