Jeremy Guscott: Current All Blacks lack the fear factor
NEW Zealand don't carry the same fear factor that they had in the 2011-2015 era going into this season's Rugby Championship.
Even before that double World Cup-winning All Black team, they were a benchmark for supremacy. Their overall dominance meant that they were almost always ranked No.1 in the world.
However, with South Africa winning the last two World Cups, that sense of All Black invincibility has dropped away.
When players like Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Ma'a Nonu, Brodie Retallick and Sonny Bill Williams were in their prime, New Zealand would have a unanimous eight or nine selections in a World XV. Today, only Ardie Savea shines in the same way, with maybe Will Jordan and Jordie Barrett in the backs when they are at their best.
The All Blacks no longer appear to have the cache of world-class players they did a decade ago. In a way, nor do South Africa. The Springboks probably only have three or four in a World XV.
Ireland, France and dare I say England are all very close to South Africa and New Zealand, because over the last five or six years they have all had wins over them.
In the past, New Zealand were odds-on to beat everyone, but if they played Ireland at home now, would they be favourites?
Even Argentina, who face the All Blacks in the Rugby Championship's opening round in Wellington on Saturday, should not be discounted.
New era
Scott Robertson had a good start as the new All Blacks coach by edging England in a close series. But it was not conclusive.
Robertson may have won six Super Rugby titles with the Crusaders, but coaching a group day-to-day is only one thing. Coaching an international team with months between training sessions is another.
Having much less time with the players is a key change for him and is not always easy.
If New Zealand get momentum, they are very good at finishing teams off. At the moment they are struggling to build momentum. Those machine-gun bursts of tries that put teams away are fewer.
In terms of physicality and size others have caught up with them, especially South Africa and France, whose packs have big power games. Against them the All Blacks look smaller. You have to ask whether they have the same fear factor and can cut the opposition to shreds?
That's not to say New Zealand should be taken lightly. They have gifted wing/full-back Jordan back after a year out with a shoulder injury. And the return of any player who has 31 tries in 31 Tests is like gold dust.
Their centre combo of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane is also still very dangerous with good ball, although Ioane, who has skills, size, and pace in attack, is sometimes guilty of being a bit loose.
Determined rivals
Another big factor in the Rugby Championship is that South Africa v New Zealand is an intense, fierce rivalry that will always burn.
Under Rassie Erasmus, the Springboks have found a way to win two World Cups. Their determination to be rugby's dominant force means that they just don't go away.
What stands out is the energy and huge will to win among South African players. This is especially true when it comes to playing for the biggest trophies in the game. Their player depth is also unrivalled, and it is highlighted by the power of a bench where Erasmus can bring on forwards of the calibre of Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman and Vincent Koch.
South Africa may not play the prettiest rugby as Australia will probably discover when they meet in Perth on Saturday. But what they do is extremely effective. That's because South African players and their fans want to win above all.
They see entertainment as a bonus rather than the main objective.
During the 2023 Rugby World Cup, when Manie Libbok or Damian Willemse had the fly-half shirt the Springboks went for it more out wide. However, when it came to the serious knock-out stuff, Handre Pollard came in behind their power pack. He played for territory, kicked the goals and retained the World Cup.
South Africa's also demonstrated their conveyor belt of talent in their recent win over Portugal when they brought young fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu off the bench for Libbok.
All I can say is look out for this kid, because he's got some skills.
What frustrates me about South Africa is when a backline with brilliant runners like Kurt-Lee Arendse, Cheslin Kolbe, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi and Lukhanyo Am is not given more ball.
Am was the best centre in the world in 2019. It's good to see him finally back from injury, but the South African superstars are still big forwards like Pieter-Steph du Toit and Eben Etzebeth who are beasts as well as athletes.
Add to that the ‘bomb-squad' plus a kicker of Pollard's class and I suppose that when you have a bulldozer in front of you, it's always tempting to take the most direct route to victory.
I applaud the way South Africa have a plan and execute it.
Although I don't agree with all Erasmus says, he's got them cooking on gas as a team.
Neighbours rebuilding
The Springboks face an Australian side which is rebuilding under Joe Schmidt.
I sense the Kiwi head coach will either frustrate and strangle the Aussies or they will become very efficient, rebuilding from the basics. Schmidt's methodology is all about team, process and execution. It's a “trust me, it works” mentality but is also quite rigid with not much room for negotiation.
I'm not sure if the Kiwi-style Schmidt culture will transplant onto the Aussies.
What's clear is that the Bob Dwyer days when the Wallabies were athletic, quick and powerful are long gone. Instead of having the macho Aussie “give it a go” mentality, everything appears to have been squeezed out of them.
While they still look like Tarzan, too often they've played like Jane.
It's probably why they haven't got any really big household names any more. No-one in the team that beat Wales leaps out at you.
Schmidt has to change that in this Rugby Championship, especially after the 2023 World Cup pool exit.
Wild cards
Argentina's new coach Felipe Contepomi is not all that new because he's got the Pumas' DNA all over him.
He's been part of Argentina's coaching group for a decade, including recently as assistant to Michael Cheika. He also has the pedigree of also having been Leinster's attack coach (2018-2022).
Before that Contepomi was an 87-cap fly-half/centre and Pumas captain who played in four World Cups (1999, 2003, 2007, 2011). This included a key role in Argentina's third-place finish in 2007.
However, it's unlikely that Argentina or Australia will threaten the likelihood of the arch-rivalry between South Africa and New Zealand deciding another Rugby Championship title.
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