The odds of both England and Argentina overcoming their semi-final opponents this weekend to reach the Rugby World Cup Final are anything between 33/1 or 50/1, depending on where you look.
Though we were treated to four entertaining, unpredictable and exciting quarter-finals, as the two halves of the lopsided and much-maligned draw finally meet there seems to be an inevitably about the outcome of Argentina vs New Zealand and England vs South Africa.
But there has rarely been a World Cup go by without one of the semi-finals ending in a surprise result, and here The Rugby Paper Online looks at five shocks in the final four that can inspire this weekend's big underdogs.
1987 – Australia 24-30 France (Concord Oval, Sydney)
Australia came into the inaugural Rugby World Cup riding the crest of a wave. Before the tournament, they were seen as the only side that could realistically challenge fellow co-hosts New Zealand for the title having become the first team to beat them in an away series the previous year.
But France were fresh off the back of a Grand Slam-winning Five Nations, one of four titles in a row that they won with two outright wins between 1986 and 1989. Though they only just got through as Pool 4 winners with a draw against Scotland, and only began to pull away from lowly Fiji late on in the first half of their quarter-final, they always carried a formidable running threat and it was displayed with four tries in this semi-final.
The Wallabies led 9-0 in the lead-up to half-time thanks to Michael Lynagh's boot, but like they had against Fiji to start to pull away, Les Bleus got a try at the very end of the first period to stay in touch. An early second-half try got France in the lead for the first time, but our recent podcast guest David Campese put Australia back in front.
Two missed penalties from Lynagh proved crucial, as the now outgoing Portugal coach Patrice Lasigquet scored for France before Didier Camberabero added the conversion and a penalty to put France back in front, though Australia led relatively late on thanks David Codey's try and Lyngah's own conversion and penalty.
But Camberabero struck another penalty to level things, before a thrilling move involving 11 players – both backs and forwards – ended with France full-back Serge Blanco charging over in the corner and sending them into the first of three finals they have reached.
1999 – France 43-31 New Zealand (Twickenham, London)
Widely seen as the greatest World Cup game in history – and until 2015, the biggest shock – France came from nowhere to produce another astonishing semi-final display as they rampantly recovered from 24-10 down to set up their second final appearance.
Even before the contest few had given Les Bleus a chance of winning, and things seemed to get even worse when Thomas Castaignede had to withdraw late on to be replaced by Christophe Lamaison.
But Lamaison got an early try, conversion, and penalty, and after Jonah Lomu's brace either side of the break had helped New Zealand into their 14-point lead, he knocked over two drop goals to complete the set of all four forms of scoring for himself, and then added two more penalties to cut the gap to two.
New Zealand were completely flustered, and things were about to get much worse just over a minute later as France turned over in midfield and Christian Dominici latched onto a kind bounce from now French coach Fabien Galthie's box kick to put his side in the lead. Another couple of minutes later they had a two-score lead as Lamaison's stunningly-weighted chip was seized upon by Richard Dourthe to make it 26 unanswered points in 14 minutes.
New Zealand began to re-assert themselves on the game but they couldn't find a score, and after knocking on at the edge of the 22 Lamaison hacked away before Phillipe Bernat-Selles secured the win as he chased down another fly hack from French flanker Oliver Magne. Jeff Wilson's last minute score for the All Blacks was a mere consolation as their wait for a second title continued.
2003 – New Zealand 10-22 Australia (Stadium Australia, Sydney)
The first of two Eddie Jones masterclasses in this list, the Wallabies left New Zealand stunned at a second semi-final in a row as they were taken apart by a clinical performance from the hosts.
Less than 60 seconds after All Black winger Mils Muliana was controversially denied a score in the corner for an apparent knock-on, Australian centre Stirling Mortlock plucked a risky misspass from Carlos Spencer out of the air to run in an interception try from 75 metres on minutes. That's how the score remained for the next quarter of an hour as New Zealand's Leon MacDonald fired wide with two penalties.
The boot of Elton Flatley, which had been so prolific for Australia throughout the tournament, pushed Australia's lead out to 13 with his conversion and two further penalties, but New Zealand got a try almost straight from the restart following his second three-pointer. From an initial turnover by Dave Hewett, Spencer danced through the Australian defence to feed Brad Thorn for their first score.
Finally MacDonald landed a kick with the conversion but less than two minutes into the second half Flatley got the lead back to two scores, before another penalty moved the lead to 12 points.
And the sides exchanged penalties before brilliant defence for the remaining 18 minutes ensured Australia went through, as they made a third World Cup Final in the first five tournaments and extended their World Cup winning run at the time to a dozen games.
2007 – England 14-9 France (Stade de France, Paris)
Both England and France had produced huge quarter-final upsets to get as far as they already had when they met in the 2007 Rugby World Cup semi-final, but with France having gone to Cardiff to beat New Zealand 20-18 in their last eight game they were highly-tipped to see off England on their return to Paris.
France had won consecutive Six Nations titles in the previous two tournaments, and though they had suffered a shock loss to Argentina in the opening game England had been on the receiving end of a 36-0 mauling in their own pool and had failed to finish in the top two of the European competition since 2003.
England hopes were almost immediately boosted though as scrum-half Andy Gomarsall put a kick through, the bounce of which deceived Damian Traille but not Josh Lewsey, who wrestled his way past the French full-back for the opening score on 78 seconds.
England didn't score another point for 47 minutes. In the meantime, the two sides had been evenly matched but England had given away three soft penalties to help Lionel Beauxis nudge France into a four point lead, though Jonny Wilkinson finally got England's side of the scoreboard moving as they were rewarded with a penalty for entertaining attacking play off the back of a Lewis Moody charge down.
That's how it stayed until the last ten minutes, but Dimitri Szarzewski went high on the diminutive Jason Robinson to give Wilkinson a penalty for the lead with five minutes remaining, and he took it with ease before adding a trademark drop-goal three minutes later. The latter score sparked wild celebrations among England fans, who could not believe what they were witnessing in the French capital.
And whilst France launched two relentless final attacks, England stole the win to reach back-to-back finals for the first time in their history. They will be back at the same venue on Saturday to try and do that once again.
2019 – England 19-7 New Zealand (International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama)
As the previous two matches have shown, Eddie Jones' tactics and a second minute try can be hugely helpful in getting a side on the way to a World Cup upset. The fact England had both in Yokohama four years ago meant they were surely bound to beat New Zealand.
But even after Manu Tuilagi's score that had come from sublime English build-up play, a New Zealand side gunning for a third-consecutive World Cup trophy off the back of a 19-match unbeaten run in the competition still seemed almost impossible to beat. The men in white made not sure to rest on their early success though, and began to turn the screw.
Like his troops had 16 years earlier Eddie Jones' side ran up a 13-0 lead, that was in-spite of England having two tries awarded on the field ruled out for different reasons, but as had been the case in Sydney Jones saw his side concede a soft try soon after they had got to that scoreline. Jamie George overthrowing at the lineout straight to Ardie Savea who got New Zealand on the board.
George Ford – on kicking duties with Owen Farrell struggling with a leg injury – calmed the English nerves with two further penalties, and though New Zealand never gave up they had long before run out of ideas in trying to find a way through the English defence, seeing their eight-year reign at the top of the World come to a crushing end.
Written by Nick Powell
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