Champions Cup semi-final preview

The knockout stages of the Heineken Champions Cup have provided plenty of thrills already this season, but which of the four familiar semi-finalists will make it to Dublin’s showpiece next month?

The semi-finals include teams who have made up five of the last six finalists: 2020 champions Exeter, 2021 finalists & 2022 champions La Rochelle, 2022 finalists Leinster and 2021 champions Toulouse.

And a repeat of last year’s final is not just possible, but favoured by bookmakers as the most likely outcome as Leinster host Toulouse in Dublin and La Rochelle face Exeter a mere two hour drive away from their Atlantic coast base in Bordeaux.

It gets underway at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday, which will also host the final three weeks from the semi.

Leinster vs Toulouse (Saturday, 3pm, ITV 1)

There has been a fair amount of criticism that Leinster, if successful on Saturday, will have had the chance to play all four of their knockout games at the Aviva Stadium, a ground that they regularly call home for big games and less than a 15-walk from their actual home, the RDS Arena.

Indeed they meet Toulouse again at the site of their thumping against the five-time champions at the same stage last year, and are heavily favoured to repeat the feat.

But it’s hard to argue that from a rugby point of view in particular, Leinster haven’t earned their home knockout run. They have topped the United Rugby Championship (URC) for four seasons in a row, giving them straightforward pool games that allowed them to top their eight-team pool this season, and have scored an average of 44.8 points per game in this year’s competition.

In Toulouse, they are facing a much tougher prospect than they have previously in the competition though, and with the absence of Jonny Sexton and James Lowe – who scored his side’s first try in last year’s win against Les Rouges et Noir – they might not expect to dish out another trouncing.

Toulouse also come into this game in much stronger shape than when the pair faced off last year too, a season in which they finished fourth in last year’s Top 14 (just a point ahead of sixth), and edged into the semi-final stage with a win on penalties against Munster.

This campaign, they are flying high at the top of the same division, and come into this game off the back of a thumping 54-20 quarter-final win against the South Africa international-laden Sharks.

They have been helped in part by impressive signings that have joined the club for this campaign, especially Melvyn Jaminet, Ange Capuozzo and Jack Willis, but only the latter of those three will be available for this clash after the former pair suffered injuries in consecutive games in their most recent Top 14 matches.

Nonetheless, star scrum-half and skipper Antoine Dupont will lead a well-rested team which shows a full 15 changes from the side that lost to Stade Francais last Saturday, with the team the same as their quarter-final victory three weeks ago.

Leinster sent a heavily weakened side out to the Bulls for a 62-7 trouncing in their last game of the URC and change all 23 players in their squad, with a team that save for the absence of Lowe, Robbie Henshaw and Ryan Baird is identical to the one that crushed Leicester 55-24 in the last round of the competition.

Lowe and Henshaw are replaced by Jordan Larmour and Charlie Ngatai, while last year’s player of the tournament Josh Van Der Flier comes in for Baird at flanker, who sits on the bench.

Leinster: Keenan, Larmour, Ringrose, Ngatai, O’Brien, R. Byrne, Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Molony, Ryan, Doris, Van der Flier, Conan

Substitutes: McKee, Healy, Ala’alatoa, Jenkins, Baird, McGrath, H. Byrne, Frawley

Toulouse: Ramos, Mallia, Barassi, Ahki, Lebel, Ntamack, Dupont; Baille, Mauvaka, Adlegheri, Arnold, Meafou, Willis, Flament, Cros

Substitutes: Marchand, Neti, Ainu’u, Roumat, Elstadt, Placines, Graou, Retière

La Rochelle vs Exeter Chiefs (Sunday, 3pm, BT Sport 1)

Other than a defeat in the 2021 final, La Rochelle have not lost in European competition since they were beaten by Sunday’s opponents Exeter in January 2020.

Much has changed since then though, and though the then-much tipped Exeter went on to win the competition that year, they are 16/1 underdogs to take the trophy this season despite only being 160 minutes from their second European crown.

Although they’ve had some good fortune en route to this stage this season, with a 33-33 draw after-extra time taking them through on tries scored in the last 16 against a 14-man Montpellier, there was no doubt their win in the last round was well-earned as they crushed the Stormers 42-17.

Though their victory was not by the same margin, La Rochelle won with a similarly dominant performance in the quarter-final against Saracens, but also won a razor-tight last 16 game as they edged out Gloucester.

So it is domestic form, rather than that in Europe, that tips the bookies’ balance in favour of La Rochelle, with Les Maritimes just a point behind leaders Toulouse in the Top 14, while Exeter are sixth in the English Premiership and not yet assured of qualifying for the competition next season.

The fact the game is so close to home will also work in La Rochelle’s favour, and with them having won semi-final matches in the last two competitions on French soil that will provide a useful boost to their confidence.

But with only one change from the team that hammered the Stormers in the last round, which sees Jacques Vermeulen come in for Dafydd Jenkins and Jannes Kirsten moving into the second row, Exeter will be hopeful of firing on all cylinders with La Rochelle having had to make two key personnel changes and re-shuffle their backline.

Jules Favre shifts from the left-wing into inside centre, with Raymond Rhule swapping wings, as Dillyn Leyds comes in on the right-wing and Romain Sazy joins Will Skelton in the second row.

La Rochelle: Dulin, Leyds, , Seuteni, Favre, Rhule, Hastoy, Kerr-Barlow; Wardi, Bourgarit, Atonio, Sazy, Skelton, Dillane, Botia, Alldritt (c)

Substitutes: Lespiauco, Sclavi, Colombe, Lavault, Boudehent, Bourdeau, Berjon, Thomas

Exeter Chiefs: Wyatt, Nowell (c), Slade, O’Brien, Woodburn, J Simmonds, Becconsall; Sio, Frost, Street, Kirsten, Gray, Vermuelen, Tshiunza, S Simmonds

Substitutes: Yeandle, Abuladze, Iosefa-Scott, Davis, Ewers, Townsend, Skinner, Hogg

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