WARREN Gatland is full steam ahead for the 2021Lions tour, with a plan in place, and a May dateline for the selection of the squad. So, we will take it as a statement of official intent that the tour will happen, although for Lions fans it is very much a wait-and-see situation on travel and access to stadiums.
I’m no expert on whether it should be a 36-man or a 40-man squad – but what I do know is that it is incredibly challenging to pick a Test team based on this topsy-turvy Six Nations. With the exception of Wales, who were very consistent, as well as helped by red cards, every team had its ups and downs.
If I was to pick a starting Test 15 in most four-year cycles the Lions teams picked by pundits would share about ten players who were dead certs. This time I suspect it will only be six or seven because of how competitive selection is. Here goes.
At scrum-half I like Conor Murray, mainly because he’s got what is required in South Africa. When you’re playing the Springboks the box-kick is uber-important. It is a way of getting at them because South African wings are not renowned for salmon-like high ball leaps, and having a high hang-time kicker like Murray gives chasers a real chance of winning the ball back.
There may be a question over whether Murray can play a high tempo 80 minutes, but, even though there are now more breakdowns than there were, a Lions Test scrumhalf should be able to last a full match and go well all the way.
At fly-half performance-wise it has to be Dan Biggar. The Welsh 10 is starting to play flatter and attract defences onto him. He is also brilliant under the high ball, and a good defender. I’d also say that he is now a better goal-kicker than Owen Farrell.
If anyone knows Biggar it is Gatland, and because Farrell did not shine in the Six Nations the Welshman has a great opportunity to become a Lions Test starter. This time if the England captain goes on the tour it will be more on reputation, and being a “Test match animal”, than on current form.
It took Farrell a while to warm-up in the Six Nations, and he, and any of the other Saracens boys selected, have to be combat-ready by the time they face South Africa – in a way that they weren’t during the recent tournament.
Johnny Sexton did not have a bad Six Nations, and finished top points scorer, so the veteran Irish fly-half will almost certainly come into consideration. The same applies to Finn Russell, who has done himself, and Scotland, a favour with his new maturity. He is now more inclined to guide his team, rather than put it at risk, however, Biggar, Sexton, and Farrell are clutch international goalkickers, whereas the Scot’s percentages are more variable.
I don’t believe Gatland will go with a view to running the Boks off their feet. Instead, he’ll chip away at them by building pressure, and for that you need a high calibre goal-kicker.
Robbie Henshaw glides into one of the centre positions after a strong Six Nations, and the Irishman could make the same impact that Rob Henderson did in 2001. Henshaw has the bit between his teeth, and when he’s in form he is a hard man to stop.
Gatland will be praying Manu Tuilagi regains full fitness in time to be considered, because Henshaw and Tuilagi together would be a really tough midfield to contend with – in defence and attack. George North might also be an option, but although he played well in the Six Nations, and did not get exposed at outside centre, I am still not oversold on him at 13.
I’d like to see Anthony Watson among the wings, and it seems to me that he’s on the plane given the quality of his finishing for a struggling England side in the Six Nations. I also like Josh Adams. The Welshman does not look fashionable, but he seems to be built of teak when he goes into contact, and he knows where the line is and how to cross it.
Louis Rees-Zammit is the new Six Nations star and deserves praise, but, great as his tries were, there are positional plays that he needs to work on, especially in defence, where his sheer inexperience works against him. Sean Maitland also played well for Scotland over the course of the tournament, and has that ability to cover wing and full-back.
At full-back Stuart Hogg seems a no-brainer, but the Scottish skipper is not failsafe under the high ball, and nor is Elliot Daly, who was picked by Gatland for his utility qualities in 2017. There is also Liam Williams, who had a decent Six Nations and was the Lions 15 against New Zealand four years ago – but Hogg has played too well to ignore.
Moving to the forwards, there is no loosehead who is out on their own. Wyn Jones had a good tournament for Wales, likewise Rory Sutherland for Scotland, which leaves Mako Vunipola with ground to make up – especially if he does not play in enough competitive club games in the Championship to make his case. The only way he can be ‘Mako the Magnificent’ again might be if he gets the chance to prove it in the early games in South Africa.
Ellis Genge is a mobile loosehead which is not always the answer to South Africa’s bulk and power in the front row. Against the Boks you have to scrummage first before you can run around. Irish centurion Cian Healy is another contender in a field in which no one is miles ahead.
The same applies at hooker, where most have had a few wobbles. I always shut my eyes when Luke Cowan-Dickie tackles, mainly because he is quick to go low but late to grasp with the arms – although in terms of technique that’s an easy fix. I think he can add a bit more to his game in terms of variety, because I’m not sure that his bulldozing game works as well for England as it does for Exeter. And I definitely don’t think it will work against South Africa, who have their own power-house hooker, Malcolm Marx.
At tighthead Tadhg Furlong is in danger of being remembered as much for his sidesteps against Scotland as his scrummaging, but I don’t think the big Irishman’s reputation for anchoring the scrum has gone down. He is still ahead of Kyle Sinckler, who is a better option coming off the bench. Kyle still doesn’t show the composure and consistency to knock Furlong out of pole position. Sinckler oozes emotion, which can sometimes be great, but, if there is too much needle, sometimes not so great.
In the second row two players stand out as Test starters. Regardless of his poor discipline, Maro Itoje did enough to confirm his status at lock, and his all-round ability means he walks into most sides. Alun Wyn Jones did the same, putting a halt to the big debate over his Lions credentials by leading from the front. He proved that he still has the mental ability to bring himself to the boil at the right time.
So, despite oodles of competition, with Ireland‘s James Ryan and Scotland’s Jonny Gray in the frame, and also maybe England’s Japan-based George Kruis, those two have stayed out in front.
At blindside I like the option of a big loose forward who is a threat ballin-hand, and has a bit of speed, and that’s why I like Caelan Doris. The Irishman was injured throughout the tournament, but he could be a bolter, although Justin Tipuric (Wales), and Scotland’s Jamie Ritchie, could also do a job. I’m not quite sure Tadhg Beirne is quick enough for a 6, even though the Irish- man had a great Six Nations, and I’d say the same with Itoje. Second row pace is not the same as back row pace.
At openside Hamish Watson deserves to get the nod, but I’m not sure the Scotsman will be ahead of Tom Curry. Both put their heads in where it hurts, but the difference is that Curry shades it as a lineout option. However, Watson never plays a bad game, and, as Six Nations player of the tournament, he deserves to go on tour. He has played in a Scotland team that had big performances against England and France, but his point of difference was that he was also good in the defeats.
Taulupe Faletau has had a lot of injuries since joining Bath, but he is leading the charge at No.8, and he showed an athletic ability, and reliability, which is second to none for Wales. I’m sure there is even more to come from Taulupe.
JEREMY GUSCOTT
