Lions must work for pack
A YEAR AHEAD OF THE 2025 LIONS TOUR OF AUSTRALIA, PAUL REES LOOKS AT HOW ANDY FARRELL'S TEAM MIGHT LINE UP
THE Lions tour to Australia ends this weekend next year. Two of the last three visits there have been successful and it is the trip most likely to yield a series victory with South Africa last vanquished in 1997 and New Zealand 26 years before that, although the Lions tied the rubber there in 2017.
A Test team picked today would look very different to one from a year ago, not least because a number of players who either retired or stood down from the international scene after the World Cup, and it will doubtless change again in the coming 12 months.
England prop Fin Baxter would not have been on the list of possibles a year ago, neither would Ciaran Frawley, Cameron Winnett or Ewan Ashman. Alex Mitchell, even, after he was left out of England's World Cup squad. And then there are some who made their Test debuts in this year's Six Nations, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Chandler Cunningham-South and Archie Griffin, the young Bath tighthead who has made more starts for Wales than he has for his club.
Selection is a moving target and it is even more complicated on a Lions tour where it is not just about formulating a Test team but identifying players, most of whom are established starters for their countries, who will not sulk if they are left out of the Test team or matchday 23. The dirt trackers, as was seen in Australia in 1989 and New Zealand four years later, can help make or break a tour.
The Lions head coach Andy Farrell appreciates the unique demands of the Lions having been part of the 2013 and 2017 tours under Warren Gatland. He will take a sabbatical from Ireland after the autumn series and after the way his side competed in the drawn series against South Africa last month and Wales, whitewashed in the Six Nations, pushed Australia all the way in two Tests, he does not need much input from the other three countries.
But a Lions tour is a journey into the unknown. Assumptions become irrelevant, as the prop picks in South Africa in 1997 showed. Players emerge, others do not make the expected impact. A lot is familiar for the tourists but more is different as four countries come together and have no more than a couple of months to make it work. There is no room for egos.
Farrell is expected to announce his coaching team after the autumn internationals. The captain will be named along with the squad at the end of next year's Six Nations and, having been in Australia in 2013 when Wales dominated selection, he will not be swayed by politics or geography but pick what he considers to be the right calls.
If that means a glut of his Ireland players, so be it, but he will not be blind to form or balance. Gatland caused an outrage when he dropped Brian O'Driscoll for the final, and deciding, Test against Australia in 2013, a player he had given his first cap to back in his Ireland days. The easier option would have been to pick one of the stand-out players of the professional era, but there was a series to be won and he went with the midfield combination that had been part of Wales's success in that year's Six Nations and the one before.
Farrell, right, may not have such a social media stoking call to make, but he is likely to have to offer soothing words to some of the players who have been part of Ireland's success under him. The ideal for the Lions is to have a head coach who is not attached to one of the four home unions, but better to have one from a successful side than Graham Henry in 2001 when his Wales team were in decline and players who did not get close to the Test side made their displeasure known to him; less than a year later he was back in New Zealand.
The team that starts the first Test against Australia will be markedly different from the side that took the field for the third Test against South Arica in Cape Town in 2021. Four are no longer playing Test rugby and two have dropped down the rankings in their countries. Only Tadhg Furlong and Maro Itoje would be likely starters with Tom Curry needing to prove his fitness again, Duhan van der Merwe facing a tussle with James Lowe and Tommy Freeman, Jack Conan no longer a first choice for Ireland at No.8 and Bundee Aki will be 35 next year with Sione Tuipulotu a strong challenger at 12.
There are 14 players involved on the 2013 tour to Australia who are still playing, although only Dan Cole, Taulupe Faletau, when fit, Cian Healy and Conor Murray make their team's 23 now. Four will be in France next season, including Owen Farrell, and Andy Farrell will have a decision to make over players involved in the Top 14 because the French league's final will be played on June 28.
Any player involved, and the potentials include Farrell, Blair Kinghorn, Jack Willis and Henry Arundell, would miss the first three matches of the tour. When Farrell names his squad, he will have an idea of who will make the Top 14 play-offs, but not who will be in the final. Will he need to look to France? Given the strength of Ireland, the growth spurt of England, the team Scotland have assembled, even if it is still waiting for the Eureka! moment, and the rebuilding job Joe Schmidt has started in Australia, probably not, but given the impact made by Willis and Kinghorn at Toulouse last season and that Finn Russell is the only settled and experienced option at outside-half, it is not an option he will dismiss.
Gatland has predicted a closely fought series after Wales's two matches against the Wallabies last month. He believes the match-up between Schmidt and his successor as Ireland head coach, Farrell, will be compelling. Time is against Australia with just the impending Rugby Championship and the November tour to Europe to come before the Lions fly in, although they are likely to arrange a warm-up ahead of the first Test.
When the Lions went to Australia 11 years ago, the tour was considered central to their survival after three successive lost series. They have not won one since, but no one is questioning the future of a team born in the amateur age that has now rooted itself in the professional era.
Rugby in Europe, on the field at least, is on the up. The Lions subsidise the game in the south and while much can change in a year, it is difficult to see them as anything other than firm favourites come next July. There is no position of weakness, if some have many more options than others, and Farrell's dilemma will not so much be who to select as who to leave out.
Back three
Hugo Keenan, below, and Kinghorn are the leading full-backs, although George Furbank grows in stature with every England appearance. Liam Williams, who appeared in the 2021 series, is playing for Wales again and Winnett showed his potential in the Six Nations.
Lowe, van der Merwe, Tommy Freeman, Feyi-Waboso and Mack Hansen offer varied strengths on the wing, with Rio Dyer, Kyle Steyn and Ollie Sleightholme bubbling below them. The Lions will not lack finishing power or defensive security.
Midfield
It is not fanciful to imagine an all-Scotland midfield pairing of Huw Jones and Tuipulotu, below, a contrasting duo that can go through defenders or around them. The last starting centres for the Lions were Robbie Henshaw and Aki, although the former looks best suited to 12 and Garry Ringrose is a stronger contender at 13.
Then there is England's Ollie Lawrence, who can play in either position and does for club and country. Cameron Redpath provides a second-five alternative and it remains to be seen whether England have a look at the powerful Freeman in the centre this autumn.
Much will depend on the coaches Farrell settles on. Henry Slade has been a central figure for England because he is used to Felix Jones's defensive system, but will attack be the priority in Australia?
Outside-half
Finn Russell looks the leading contender after being given leadership responsibility with Scotland and quickly settling in at Bath. George Ford is nudging 100 England caps, but has never been on a Lions tour, overlooked as a replacement three years ago for Marcus Smith, above.
England have four contenders: Ford, the Smiths Marcus and Fin and Owen Farrell, who will not be available for England having joined Racing 92. After being marginalised in South Africa last time out, he would see a fourth Lions tour as unfinished business.
Then there is Jack Crowley, whose performances in the Six Nations eased fears of what life would be like after Johnny Sexton. And Ciaran Frawley came off the bench to square the series in South Africa last month with two drop goals. As of now, there are no contenders for Wales, unusually so for the land of the fly-half factory. Gareth Anscombe will be available again next season after joining Gloucester, but last time in Australia the Lions only took two specialist 10s.
Scrum-half Ireland's Jamison Gibson-Park, below, is the stand-out candidate, the catalyst after a slow start under Farrell. England's Mitchell is similar in style, and has been central to their attacking approach this year with his ability, like Gibson-Park, to get the ball away quickly.
Wales's Tomos Williams, who missed the Australia tour because of injury, is a similar 9 while Scotland's Ben White offers something a little different. Then there is Jack van Poortvliet who, but for injury, would have been in France last year instead of Mitchell.
He was overlooked for the tour to New Zealand after spending so much of last season out of action, but he is a greater kicking threat and a direct runner. His first task will be to break back into the England squad.
Props
It is invariably a numbers game with the front rowers: how many to take. Matt Stevens went to Australia 12 years ago, a prop able to pack down on both sides of the scrum but they are now a rare breed.
Ireland's Andrew Porter, right, England's Ellis Genge and Scotland's Pierre Schoeman are the stand-out loose-heads with Baxter one to watch after his performances for Harlequins in big matches and England in New Zealand. Tight-head is not as well stocked. Furlong would be the Test starter this week, but Scotland's Zander Fagerson has had another impressive season and complements the bustling Schoeman.
Dan Cole was with the Lions the last time they were in Australia, but he is 38 next year and would it be a tour too far? Ireland do not go backwards when Finlay Bealham comes on and Wales's Griffin is a potential bolter – but how much will he play next season with Will Stuart and Thomas du Toit ahead of him at Bath. A Welsh region should make a loan offer.
Hookers
Dan Sheehan, top right, is the likely Test starter if fit and his back-up with Ireland, Ronan Kelleher, will be part of the debate. Dewi Lake was one of the few who stood tall in Wales's mediocre series with Australia last month and Jamie George has led England smartly during a period of evolution.
George is a contender for the captaincy, but a question if he is not considered to be the Test hooker is whether the Lions would be better served by taking Theo Dan or Ewan Ashman, two emerging players who would not be unenthused by a midweek role.
Locks
Ireland and England lead the way with Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne, Maro Itoje and George Martin, below, enjoying strong Six Nations campaigns. James Ryan missed out in 2021 and may do so again with Ollie Chessum, along with Beirne and Martin, offering versatility as they can play in the back row.
Wales's Dafydd Jenkins is a young but mature forward who would be an option for the midweek captain and Scotland's Scott Cummings has gone up a level in the last year. Adam Beard featured in the 2021 series.
Back row
The three positions will take some sorting. England have three contenders, Tom Curry, below, Sam Underhill and Ben Earl while Wales have two, Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan.
Josh van der Flier would have gone this year, Rory Darge has impressed for Scotland and there is the matter of Jack Willis, ostracised by England but at the top of his game.
Chandler Cunningham-South and Ryan Baird have emerged as blind-side options and Andy Christie offers versatility. Courtney Lawes has said he would not turn down an invitation but another veteran, Ireland's captain Peter O'Mahony, was dropped to the bench for the final Test in South Africa last month, although he would be another midweek captain option.
At No.8, Ireland have Caelan Doris and Jack Conan, who started all three Tests in South Africa three years ago, Aaron Wainwright has provided light for Wales and Matt Fagerson has been consistent for Scotland.
And there is Gloucester's Zach Mercer, unwanted by England but unique in his position. If Andy Farrell is prepared to look to France, he will also have in mind players in the Premiership and United Rugby Championship who are trying to make themselves heard amidst the noise.
Captain
Warren Gatland opted for captains he knew well in his three tours as head coach, Sam Warburton twice and Alun Wyn Jones. If Farrell takes the same route, Caelan Doris, below, rather than Peter O'Mahony would be the pick because he is the more likely Test starter.
Dewi Lake won plaudits for the way he led Wales in Australia but, like Jamie George, he would need to be seen as a Test starter ahead of Dan Sheehan.
Then there is Finn Russell, although it will be 20 years since the Lions were last led by a back, Brian O'Driscoll in New Zealand in 2005, succeeded by Gareth Thomas when a first Test injury ended his tour.
