Bath and Saints to win – but only just
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It’s hard to see Northampton changing the way they’ve played all season when they face Saracens in the first Premiership play-off semi-final under the lights at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday night.
However, Northampton made a load of mistakes when they were pressured by a very good Leinster defence in the first-half of their recent European Cup semi-final – and Saints were pretty naive in the way they stuck to their guns by trying to attack off everything, with their errors exploited for James Lowe to score a hat-trick of tries.
This will probably change as Northampton play more of these big high-pressure games, because sometimes you have to find ways to win that are not about always running the ball. It’s also about mixing your kicking game, and keeping the opposition guessing. All-out attack might win you some big knock-out games, but to my reckoning it will not win you the majority of them.
Saracens are like Leinster in the sense that they have a solid defence and know how to counter-attack very effectively, as they proved recently by outplaying Bristol at Ashton Gate. They move as a 15 with everyone understanding their roles, and there is a snap in the way that they switch into the mode required, whether it’s in attack or defence.
When Saracens are at their best they have a collective attitude and determination, and a synchronisation which has made them very difficult to beat. But, don’t get me wrong, because I’ve loved watching a Northampton attack which has combined flair and precision this season to such an extent that, with some of the tries they’ve scored, you just stand up and applaud.
Northampton have also got over a psychological barrier by beating Saracens both away and home in the Premiership this season. Those two wins could be significant, but Saracens have the advantage of being more familiar with the atmosphere surrounding semi-finals and finals than Northampton.
Saracens have been there many times before, and as reigning champions, despite their home defeat by Sale last weekend, their reputation will linger in the memory of the crowd at Franklin’s Gardens. It’s why Saints fans will not relax until they are three scores ahead – and it’s also why the atmosphere will be edgy, as well as electric.
Sarries supporters are unlikely to be inside the ground in big numbers to witness what I hope will be one of the ultimate Premiership semi-finals, which pitches the attacking flair of Saints against the dogged defence and a wicked counter-punching ability of Saracens.
We will see who gets the edge, and whether Northampton can counter the excellent kicking game which Owen Farrell, and Alex Goode and Elliot Daly, use to put the opposition at a disadvantage.
“Emotions will run high as Saracens will not want it to end without Farrell lifting the trophy”
However, if Saints can win enough collisions to disrupt the Saracens kicking game, you can put them on a tilt and push them into making uncharacteristic mistakes – because that’s what happens when you prevent a side getting what they want, and what is familiar.
There is big pressure on both sides, with huge expectation among Northampton fans. They want silverware this season, but Saracens, as reigning champions, will also be highly motivated with key players like Farrell, and Billy and Mako Vunipola, who’ve been central to their success over the last decade, leaving the club.
Emotions will run high, because Saracens will not want it to end without Farrell lifting the Premiership trophy with the Vunipolas standing next to him. It was interesting to see that Farrell’s passion is still burning, and it showed even in the loss to Sale when he chided their England loosehead Bevan Rodd for shamming when he fell to the ground after being pushed.
For Northampton to win, they cannot afford to be as nervy and mistake-riddled as they were early on against Leinster, where they got ahead of themselves. If they do that against Saracens, they will lose. But with players like Tommy Freeman – who is my Premiership player of the season – as well as George Fur-bank and Alex Mitchell, they can cut you to shreds, just as long as they remain calm enough to be clinical.
There is a bigger expectation of a Bath victory when they play Sale in Saturday’s second semi-final, mainly because Bath supporters expect them to make the most of home advantage.
Bath beating a fourth team Northampton selection last weekend, with the bonus point in the bag early in the second-half, followed later by news of Saracens losing, made it an even bigger party at The Rec. It might be why director of rugby, Johann van Graan, gave the Bath squad a few days off from the grind this week, so they can go away, chill, and then get ready.
It’s new ground for this Bath team, because the club hasn’t been in a final since losing to Saracens in 2015. It’s been a competitive league, and that was evident in their two games against Sale, where they lost 11-9 at the AJ Bell before winning 42-24 at The Rec.
Bath are no longer a push-over pack. They have a set of forwards now, with Thomas du Toit, Beno Obano, Sam Underhill, Ted Hill, and Charlie Ewels, which can get the edge against the Sale pack.
It paved the way for the two late tries they scored in the last game to get away in the last 10 minutes. It was a tight match, despite the final scoreline, and it will mean that Bath will have to hold their nerve, because Sale director of rugby Alex Sanderson has got Sale pumped for a strong run at the end of this season – which is typical of what Saracens did when he was there.
Bath also need to squeeze George Ford, by not letting the Sale fly-half get easy kicks away. They have to cut down Ford’s space by getting in his face every time, within the laws. But Ford is a consummate rugby player, and Sale will move him around so that, apart from off first phase, he will be hard to find when they attack.
In defence Ford is unlikely to win big collisions, so when Bath attack they will be tempted to send Ollie Lawrence down Ford’s channel – although they shouldn’t become predictable by overdoing it.
Bath must also beware of getting turned over when they counterattack from deep. In the first 10 minutes of a game you will not lose if your full-back ignores the safe option of kicking back, and gives away possession trying to run it back. But in the last 10 minutes you will, because it is an energy-sapping error – and those are the moments that win or lose semi-finals.
It is a question of judgement, because if it’s on, and you get chances, you must take them, because that’s what you get paid for.
With home advantage both Northampton and Bath should win – but Saracens are a hard side to bet against in knock-out rugby.
