Nick Cain: Certitudes for England? I can count only two!

Stuart Lancaster‘s head must be in a spin. This is because with only two weeks to go before England open their autumn series account against Australia, the Red Rose boss has a team sheet in which there is barely a position which is nailed down.
Lancaster is an unflappable character, but having selection conundrums in every position from one to 15 is not the stuff of which World Cup triumphs are made, especially with only two years until the tournament kicks off.
Lancaster is in an exposed position compared to most of England’s main rivals at the 2015 tournament because most of them – with the possible exception of France – have a far clearer picture of their World Cup starting line-ups.
The failure of the England selection picture to fall into place is not something that can be laid lock, stock and barrel at the head coach’s door.
In part it is down to a generation of players who are failing to rise to the World Cup challenge because of their inconsistent performances on the pitch. Should they need a ready reckoner of the level of consistency required they need look no further than the attainments of Martin Johnson, Lawrence Dallaglio and company in becoming world champions a decade ago.
In many cases the players are not helped by club selection policies that are sometimes totally at odds with England’s requirements.
One of the most glaring examples came on Friday night when Joel Tomkins found himself on the bench for Saracens in their big Heineken Cup clash against Toulouse at Wembley. Tomkins had been talked-up during the week by both Lancaster and the backs coach Andy Farrell as a potential starter at outside-centre against the Wallabies.
The England coaches had also highlighted in their Press conference at Lloyd’s of London how important good performances in this weekend’s Heineken Cup matches were to their prospects of Test selection.
If ever there was a game this season in which Tomkins needed to make his mark, it was against a star-studded Toulouse side at Wembley in front of 61,000 fans. What better stage on which to announce your international credentials?
Instead, Saracens opted to start the American Chris Wyles at 13, with the Scot, Duncan Taylor, inside him. When Tomkins eventually came on with half an hour left to play it took him time to adjust to the rhythm of the game. Not only that, his side were on the back foot against the thunderous Toulouse forwards and had precious little attacking ball during that period.
If Tomkins had been on from the start, in particular in a first half in which Saracens enjoyed more possession and territory, he might have been able to press his case – as it was he was a bit part player consigned to plugging gaps in the Saracens defensive line. He did that well enough, but it was hardly a platform for international inclusion.
Even more puzzling was the decision by Gloucester coach Nigel Davies to field of virtual second team against Munster at Thomond Park. This meant that rather than seeing a potential England 10 -12 pairing of Freddie Burns and BillyTwelvetrees coping with the red heat generated by Munster at their renowned fortress – the sort of heat you find at Test level – Burns was on the bench and Twelvetrees rested.
The Davies rotation also resulted in Matt Kvesic being unable to press his credentials at openside against fierce opposition just when he needed to. Meanwhile, Henry Trinder, who is on the cusp of returning from injury after being beamed into the England squad this week, was also on the sidelines.
The tales of Tomkins and Trinder make it clear just how difficult it is for Lancaster to find a battle-hardened replacement for the injured Manu Tuilagi.
A quick scroll through the other positions on Lancaster’s team sheet shows that only Tom Youngs at hooker and Alex Corbisiero at loose head have made uncontestable claims. Whether Corbisiero’s knee injury allows him to start against the Wallabies remains to be seen.
Dan Cole has probably also done enough to keep David Wilson at bay at tighthead, but the Bath man’s superior carrying ability could still swing it his way.
The landscape at lock is well populated, but Lancaster has to decide whether a lightweight combination of Joe Launchbury and Geoff Parling is superior to that of Launchbury and Courtney Lawes, or whether he should go with his biggest combination of Lawes and Dave Attwood.
In the back row the options are less clear-cut. Neither of Lancaster’s two captains have been pulling up trees, with Tom Wood sound but unspectacular for Northampton at blindside, and Chris Robshaw industrious rather than outstanding at openside for Harlequins. As for Kvesic, the discovery of the Argentina tour has struggled to make an impression at Gloucester behind a poor front five.
Nor are Lancaster’s options at No.8 more defined. Ben Morgan has been inconspicuous so far this season for Gloucester, and the fanfare for Billy Vunipola fizzled out at Wembley on Friday night as he failed to make an impact as a carrier against the Toulouse heavyweights.
At half-back the debates still rage. Ben Youngs, Danny Care, or Lee Dickson, with the Northampton man the in-form scrum-half? Owen Farrell looks likely to continue at fly-half, but Toby Flood remains a contender, with Burns the outsider.
There is a three-way choice at inside centre with Twelvetrees, Luther Burrell and Kyle Eastmond as the contenders, while the likely lads at wing are Chris Ashton and Marland Yarde – with Christian Wade providing impact off the bench.
There is another three-way split at full-back with Ben Foden and Alex Goode trying to prise the shirt off Mike Brown.
Like Tom Youngs in the pack, Brown has been the only back in Lancaster’s elite squad who has hit the high points consistently this season. Behind them there is a whole column of England players with a lot of ground to make up – and very little time in which to do it.