Jeremy Guscott: Croft gets my vote and there’s no Sam!
A handful of guys have made a big impact so far on tour – notably Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Brian O’Driscoll and Mako Vunipola – and yesterday half a dozen more stated their case, especially Tom Croft and Paul O’Connell who were both magnificent.
No other back rower in the Home Unions can score a try like Croft did. We’ve seen him do it numerous times for Leicester and England. Give him the outside channel and he’s probably quicker than any of the Lions‘ inside backs.
Before last night I don’t think I’d be alone wondering what O’Connell’s contribution had really been so far on tour. But against the Waratahs he proved his class, rediscovering the vintage of 2009, it really was a commanding performance.
I’ve rarely seen him pass but he was linking well. If it was on to pass he did, rather than tuck the ball under the shoulder, dump the neck in and go for it. He carried hard on those big, grafting trundles when he needed to and also turned over a few balls. He was superior and was saying: “Hey, I’m in town, I may not be captain but I want to keep that jersey.”
That performance demanded the attention of his coaches.
So beginning with the front row, here’s my lineup for Saturday.
Tom Youngs has been inspirational. His weakness before the tour was his lineout throwing but he is now top of the tree out of the three hookers. But his fate is how Gatland sees the front row at scrum time. Vunipola is not known for his scrummaging so I think he may opt for Hibbard to strengthen that area in between Vunipola and Adam Jones. I would pick Youngs, but I think Gatland will go for the bulkier Hibbard in order to batter the Australians.
Alun Wyn Jones had a good game, but for me he didn’t have the same impact as O’Connell. The second rows are interchangeable these days, whether it is four or five, jumping at the front, middle or back doesn’t really make a lot of difference.
The big question is does Gatland go for a bulky Ian Evans or Richie Gray alongside O’Connell? Or does he opt for the experience of Wyn Jones or the all-round ability of Parling. I’d go for Gray – he’s big, rangy and athletic – and I think Gatland will pick a side that will just run all day at Australia and be relentless.
Gatland, we know, believes Dan Lydiate to be the best No.6 in the world but I think he is marginally off the pace. The workhorse Sean O’Brien always gets over the gain line and he is almost impossible to ignore. But Croft gets my vote on the basis of his speed and lineout prowess.
Warburton knows what the Lions is about and he has said: “Don’t pick me if I’m not good enough.” I don’t know how many captains would say that, publicly too. Gatland said he will pick on form. That means you have to be No.1 in your position and I don’t see too many avenues for Sam to get there.
Justin Tipuric has just been that much quicker, that much sharper. He has made four turnovers, the most of that openside group. If you have someone that quick who is doing that and not being smashed off the ball, while carrying well and making tackles – he’s not missed one yet – he’s hard to ignore. I would go with Tipuric.
Toby Faletau deserves the spot at No.8. He is a powerful carrier and makes a lot of tackles. He is, however, prone to making the odd unforced error which in the big games can lead to tries, penalties and points – but I’d go with him because he’s been more consistent.
You have to put in performances that stand out and I don’t get that feeling about Jamie Heaslip this time around. He had great stats against the Western Force which made him the early front-runner but it’s Faletau for me.
Mike Phillips and Jonny Sexton are definite starters at 9 and 10, with George North on one wing, O’Driscoll at outside centre and Halfpenny at full-back. The rest gets more difficult.
The team has worked well with people playing where they do week-in, week-out. If Jamie Roberts is injured can Jonathan Davies do a job at 12? I just don’t see him as an inside centre. He doesn’t carry the ball like Roberts and I think it is wishful thinking that Davies can bring a kicking game. What’s he renowned for? Certainly not kicking. He likes the outside channel and scores tries – you wouldn’t think he clears defence with 60-metres kicks.
The Lions haven’t given up possession easily and you get the sense that the inside three of Australia are going to be lightweight, consisting of James O’Connor, young Brumbies centre Christian Lealiifano and Adam Ashley-Cooper. They won’t fancy tackling a 17st rhinoceros like Manu Tuilagi so if he is fit I’d stick him in there. It just takes them out of the game. But I can see Gatland going for Davies as he is more experienced.
Right wing looks likely to be Sean Maitland, but I wouldn’t rule out Alex Cuthbert or possibly a side-door for Stuart Hogg. Simon Zebo will be kicking himself he didn’t dive lower to score at the start, but he is young and inexperienced and most of us have done that when we were a little bit naive. But he was keen and got involved throughout the rest of the game.
Cuthbert has scored the tries, made the yards and done pretty much everything asked of him. But the risk is that against these weaker sides the Lions have faced he has made a few defensive errors and this first Test is so important to get one nil up. The Wallabies are only going to get stronger.
They have to be caught cold in Brisbane and can’t be given a sniff. You give them any little opportunity and these guys are skilful enough to take advantage.
It’s Cuthbert’s niggling defensive frailty that makes me think Gatland should go for Maitland. We saw that with Luke Morahan’s try for the Reds. And a few times before his solo try Quade Cooper put him and Ben Tapuai away, both in Cuthbert’s area. He seems to lack a bit of communication and understanding of the defensive system Andy Farrell has put in place.
It would be amazing if someone like Hogg got in there, or Zebo, because of their unpredictability, zest and young ambition. Their time will come, but unless there are more injuries it won’t be this time.
Maitland is a good footballer who doesn’t make errors which gives him the edge over Cuthbert. But as Ian McGeechan says, you have to go with the Test match animals and the guys who have proven themselves in the past will probably get the nod in these marginal calls.
It was a comprehensive victory last night. Halfpenny’s try was as good a score as you will see in terms of everybody contributing. Clean ball from a lineout and then boom, take it up, suck the defence in with pick and go runners and then the sucker punch came when Roberts dropped off and linked with Davies who found Halfpenny. It was just beautiful.
Their tackle success is about 90 per cent; turnovers came down to nine and penalties below 10. Discipline has been very good. They’ve needed to score tries and they have. It’s been clinical and the level with step up 30, 40 per cent on Saturday. The Wallabies will need to step up 50 per cent from their training camp and I think it will be too hard. The Lions have so many options you can’t predict what they will do – we’ve seen route one, two, three, four and five – they’ve just got to get the execution right.
I’m confident going into the first Test without being forgetful of how great tactically Australia have always been. They may be underdogs but they have great attacking players.
The Lions have come through two hard workouts against the Reds and Waratahs and I don’t think the Australians will be ready for the battering they will receive.
Jeremy Guscott’s team: Halfpenny, North, O’Driscoll, Tuilagi, Maitland, Sexton, Phillips; Vunipola, Youngs, Jones, O’Connell, Gray, Croft, Tipuric, Faletau,.
