Jeremy Guscott: Tigers can edge this battle of the giants
However, it would be pretty reckless to write them off given the way that they spoiled Saracens‘ unbeaten record at Allianz Park in last weekend’s away semi-final victory.
Against Saracens they dominated the first half because they used their power in the forwards and were very direct – and, unlike on other occasions, they kept the pressure on for the full 80 minutes. The Saints don’t have the same restrictions on them as Saracens, who play such a structured way.
They also have Samu Manoa, who ought to be their player of the year. He is some piece of work. You can see in his eyes how much he enjoys the man-on-man combat, and he’s got a bit of animal about him. It’s good to see, and his attitude has started rubbing off on other Saints players. I like his style.
So much of Northampton’s rugby has been based on forward power, and props Saone Tonga’uhia and Brian Mujati had very good games against Saracens. They are on their way to Racing Metro in Paris but they obviously want to put a trophy in the Saints cabinet before they go.
However, the big question hanging over Northampton is, where do they go when they don’t munch other sides up?
Saints are still looking for a quality 10, although Stephen Myler has taken over the reins at fly-half. Against Saracens he kicked his goals, but he is not a dangerous runner – although, to be fair, there are not many of those around in the Premiership.
Lee Dickson is very important to the Saints at scrum-half because he is a real motivator. He drives and directs the forwards at the breakdown, and takes quick-tap penalties to keep the momentum going.
At inside centre Luther Burrell also seems to be making a name for himself. He’s a big lump, and not overly quick, but he is strong and runs straight and has come through as a good replacement for James Downey – and Northampton were always dangerous when Downey got over the gain-line.
Courtney Lawes is a tackling machine, but I’d love to see him as dangerous with the ball in his hands as he is to the opposition when they have it. If he develops his carrying it will give Northampton an extra edge.
The Saints took a tanking at home against Leicester, and the team, and their fans, will still be hurting and looking for redemption in the final against their arch-rivals. The only problem is that however motivated they are, it will not be easy against a Tigers side which are always there competing for silverware.
The Leicester way is to get the very best out of all their players. Not many players leave Welford Road when they are playing at full capacity, and one of the strengths of their system is that there is true competition in training every week. If you don’t play well, then someone will take your place. That is a challenge that good players rise to.
Leicester are not Clermont, they are not brimful of international talent in every position three times over, but they are the top scorers in the Premiership, and a team that work hard for each other.
There are no egos at the Tigers, and when Richard Cockerill is not moaning about referees he talks a lot of sense.
Their ferocity against Harlequins in last weekend’s semi-final was such that at times Quins could not live with it. Last season that would not have been the case, but, like their captain Chris Robshaw, Harlequins looked knackered.
It was four tries to one consolation try, and Quins were dismantled. Tom Croft looks in great shape – fitter, stronger, and more involved – and he showed that he is a game breaker.
Manu Tuilagi would bring X Factor to any side, as he showed against Harlequins when he created a try by stepping out of the tackle.
However, Leicester don’t have that many of those, and their consistency is based on a team which do their work with efficiency and intensity.
Mathew Tait had a pretty good game at full-back, but I wouldn’t rave about his performance against Quins like some did. He is talented, but I still don’t think he is at his best, and I’m surprised at the way he sometimes seems to lose orientation.
Toby Flood is a cut above most fly-halves at club level, and he has a good understanding with Ben Youngs, who is really starting to step up.
Youngs is doing more of what I want from a scrum-half: get there fast, get the ball away fast, and make the odd break. He seems to have settled down after going through his growing pains, and the arrival of his brother Tom on the scene has probably been an influence on him growing up and playing good rugby.
With Tom Youngs and Dan Cole in the front row, Geoff Parling as a dominant line-out forward, and Croft at the back, Leicester have Test class in each row of the scrum.
For Northampton to get the better of a team with that all-round strength they will have to be ballsy, and to play at the speed they did against Saracens. What they must not do at Twickenham is play Leicester’s game – they want an arm-wrestle because they think they will win it.
Saints must push the boundaries in terms of playing at pace. They must cut out the errors and be effective at the set piece. If they can do that, then the pressure will mount on Leicester – mainly because they have not won anything for so long.
Northampton should remember that.
However, the Tigers are a tasty team who play a good brand of rugby, and that is why you have to favour them to turn the Saints over. But I don’t expect Northampton to crumble in a repeat of what happened at Franklin’s Gardens.
Saints will remember the emptiness of losing to Leinster in their last big final and will come out firing – but Leicester are still slight favourites.
