Bath will have to go full metal jacket all the way
BATH, ENGLAND - MARCH 24: Ollie Lawrence of Bath breaks clear of Ernst van Rhyn to score their fifth try during the Gallagher Premiership Rugby match between Bath Rugby and Sale Sharks at the Recreation Ground on March 24, 2024 in Bath, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
BATH have got a very good shout of winning the Premiership for the first time in almost 30 years, for all the reasons we've seen this season – and which were on display again against Sale at The Rec last weekend.
With five regular-season fixtures left until the play-offs, you can see the form guide taking shape, and Bath are in a strong position, despite having to play four of the top five sides during that period.
What Bath have shown is an ability to stay in the game, whereas in previous seasons it was lacking. Whether they were just behind on the scoreboard, or just ahead, in the last 20 minutes you were always worried that Bath were going to blow up, and frequently they did.
However, there are signs that that has changed significantly, because against Sale, although it was incredibly close after an hour, Bath were able to hit the accelerator and pull clear by scoring two more tries.
And yesterday, despite a woeful first half against Harlequins, they got their act together and very nearly pulled off a sensational comeback win having trailed 40-3.
At the moment the top four clubs heading into the weekend are all in the hunt – Northampton, Bath, Saracens, and Exeter – and I would put Quins, Leicester and Bristol in there too. The top of the Premiership is a bit like the round-robin at the top of international rugby over the last 18 months, where everyone appears to have beaten each other.
For example, Northampton in first have lost four games, while Sale, who are down in eighth place, have lost six. However, people will obviously lean toward Saracens as favourites because of their record in terms of winning titles.
It's all about getting the top two slots, and at the moment it's hard to take anything for granted. Everyone who is keeping an eye on this run-in is saying that it is going to be nipand-tuck.
One factor that is going to be hard to ignore is the impact that the European Cup will have on the title hopes of Premiership clubs. Those involved in the knock-out stages in Europe are going to have a hell of a run-in, and overall I think that fighting on two fronts is probably going to count against you – although the flipside is that when you are in a great run of form, you just want to keep on playing.
Ultimately, it all depends on injuries, the strength of your squad, and how well the club responds to pressure. Even so, there's no getting away from the fact that if you lose in a European Cup semi-final, you will need to get your heads around it very quickly to go on and win a domestic title.
As for Bath, I'm not surprised with what Johann van Graan has done this season as director of rugby in terms of overseeing a big improvement. The arrival of Finn Russell at fly-half, and the way there appears to have been a coming together with attack coach Lee Blackett, has brought a change in the mental aspect of the team.
Not only has the pack been playing well, with all the elements at the set-piece and in the loose good, but everything appears to be aligning throughout the team – so, whatever position Bath finish in the table, they will be on the up.
If you look at the tries they scored against Sale some of Bath's moves were very close-in, but they had the all-important shape of having passing options to support runners both inside and outside the ball-carrier – and that stresses and tests opposition defences.
Russell sees the big picture, and generally picks the right option, but the next step is for this Bath team to truly believe they can become champions, and that means beating the best clubs in the league in this last stretch.
After Bath's visit to Quins, and their European Cup round of 16 clash with Exeter next weekend at Sandy Park, they then face Exeter again (away) in the league and Saracens (home) in April, before the last two rounds in May against Newcastle (away) and Northampton (home). It means Bath will have to be full metal jacket all the way in, and that's when you need your pack to be really firing. The good news is that the front row is in good shape, with Thomas Du Toit rock solid at tight-head, Tom Dunn playing well at hooker, and Beno Obano making headlines at loosehead.
Both Quinn Roux and Charlie Ewels have been doing their jobs in the second row and in the back row, Ted Hill has come back from injury and is making his presence felt at blindside, Sam Underhill is pretty much impregnable in defence, and at No.8 they have the twin threats of Alfie Barbeary and Jaco Coetzee. Before he was banned Barbeary was in tremendous form, but since then he has dipped a bit and needs to get back to his best, while Coetzee usually makes a strong impression when he comes on.
The Bath backline is also firing. When you get a player like an in-form Ollie Lawrence then something is going to happen – and Lawrence is having a big impact at the moment. When you are in a good vein of form of the sort Lawrence is in it's a case of “give me the ball, and I'll show you what I can do”. His performances in the past for England were dominated by how infrequently he was passed to or carried the ball, this time round it's changed and England and Lawrence are seeing the benefits.
He is having one of those seasons you don't want to stop, you can see gaps before players can react and close them, you slip tackles that before you didn't, a lot of what you try on the field comes off, it's a wonderful feeling. It must be remembered hard work underpins those plays and performances plus a mental capacity to not take it for granted, it won't just happen.
At Bath he is seeing plenty of the ball at 13, mainly because inside him Russell and Cameron Redpath are in the process of building a great 10-12 relationship. It obviously got a bit of an airing for Scotland in the Six Nations, and is a bonus for Bath.
Redpath is an inside-centre who reads the game well, can slip defenders, is deceptively powerful, and is never found wanting in defence. He's not one of those hard inside line carriers, but he's elusive, intuitive, and works so effectively as a link between Russell and Lawrence that it is Bath's first choice 10-12-13 combination. Add to that the threat out wide with Joe Cokanasiga getting much more involved and finishing strongly, and Will Muir's hard running, and Bath have so many players making an impact.
Van Graan has done a great job of rotating his squad. The team chopped and changed quite a lot at the beginning of the season and still performed pretty well. I suspect that rotation has benefited the players, especially the internationals – it has kept the players fresh, competitive and now they all want to start; they are fit and raring to go and fight for places and each other. Add in the recent seven-week break and the non-internationals will feel like it's the start of the season!
No matter how this season ends this coaching team and playing squad have helped put Bath back on the rugby map.
They are not the only side raising their game judging by Saracens 52-7 headline win over Harlequins at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium last weekend. Their eight-try display in front of 60,000 left none of their rivals in any doubt how much they want to retain their Premiership title, especially with Owen Farrell leaving the club for Racing this summer. However, there were times when it seemed as if Quins had forgotten how to defend – and if Bath want a play-off place, and especially a top two finish for home advantage, they can't afford to make the same mistake.
