Jeremy Guscott: The Toulouse test will show Tigers where they stand

There’s been a lot of talk about the BT Vision contract signed by the Premiership clubs, and a potential English and French clubs breakaway. That’s unlikely, mainly because the product is getting stronger year-on-year, and is a wonderful competition. The Heineken Cup has reached a similar stage as a club competition as the Six Nations has as a great international tournament, and both events are the envy of the Southern Hemisphere.
Whether it’s knife-edge contests between elite clubs from different countries, or the chance for fans to travel and experience the best that Britain, Europe and Ireland have to offer, or the great debates it creates, the Heineken Cup delivers on a number of different fronts. Among the most topical of those debates is the dominance of the Irish over the last four seasons, with the reigning champions, Leinster, established as the team to beat after matching Leicester by clinching deserved back-to-back titles with last season’s emphatic victory over Ulster at Twickenham.
I will take particular interest over the course of this season in the progress of two centres, one old, one new. Wesley Fofana made such a big impact for Clermont in his first season in the competition that he was capped by France in the Six Nations, where he confirmed that he is a great talent. This is also a big year for Brian O’Driscoll. You might wonder what the Irish veteran has left on his wish list after Leinster’s triumph, but my hunch is that he has unfinished business and is prepared to push himself through another season in the hope that he will be part of a winning Lions tour next summer.
English sparkle in Europe has been a long time coming, and we may have to wait a little longer because the purchasing power of the French clubs, and the Irish, makes it hard to break that dominance. On their day, on home soil, Harlequins, Northampton, Saracens and Leicester can beat the big French and Irish outfits – but the Heineken Cup is about your ability to last the journey because it’s not one-off games that decides who are crowned champions. You need a very strong side physically, mentally, and in terms of depth, and for the English clubs there is a sense of being outgunned by teams with bigger budgets.
Saracens have a good chance to make their mark in Pool 1 where their main rivals are fellow ‘wannabes’ Racing Metro, last year’s semi-finalists, Edinburgh – and Munster, a side with one of the best records in Europe. So far, Sarries have reached one semi-final, and whether they like it or not, they have a South African attitude to rugby. Their emphasis is on kick-chase, defence, and kicking penalties, and while they don’t concede a lot of tries, they don’t score many either.
I don’t believe that their style is the future, and they got a lesson last year when they were beaten at home by Clermont. However, I could be wrong because South Africa have won a World Cup playing that style, and Saracens have won a Premiership title doing the same. It’s more a sense that, if they want to be champions of Europe, they need to use the pressure game they have at the moment as a building block, and mix their game more. That way they could match Harlequins – but they are unlikely to do it with Owen Farrell at fly-half, whereas they might with Charlie Hodgson there.
Munster may be in transition, but you write them off at your peril because they have the pedigree. It’s a difficult group, but with players like Paul O’Connell coming back to fitness, and a backline which still includes Connor Murray, Ronan O’Gara and Casey Laulala, my money is on Munster to go through.
If Leicester ever want to know where they are in the European pecking order, then there is no quicker way to find out than a visit to Toulouse. And that is what they are confronted with in their Pool 2 opener. It’s over a decade since the Tigers won the second of their European titles, and it’s hard to see them adding to their total this time. No English club has the funds at the moment to match a squad like Toulouse’s, and by comparison Leicester’s looks ordinary. But the Tigers have a great ability to make the most of what they have, and with Ben Youngs on his way back from injury and Toby Flood playing reasonably well, they will be competitive.
The Ospreys should have featured in a European Cup final before now, and given that they have no real concerns about qualifying from the Pro12 for next year’s tournament, you would think that the Welsh region would see this competition as the one that defines them. Dan Biggar‘s form at fly-half will be influential, but neither the Ospreys nor Leicester will find Treviso a pushover. They are an Italian side who are strong enough to win at home, and that means there is no guarantee of a second qualifier from Pool 2.
Harlequins are favourites to win Pool 3, although last season’s Amlin Cup winners, Biarritz, will want to change the odds. It is up to Quins to be ruthless against Connacht, especially as last season’s defeat at The Showground killed off their chance of playing in the knock-out stage. However, with weak Italian outfit Zebre in the pool, and therefore two likely qualifiers, Harlequins and Biarritz should both progress.
Ulster are going well in the Pro12 and last season’s finalists should win Pool 4, although they will be worried that backline linchpin Ruan Pienaar could be a bit jaded when he returns from Springbok duty. Ulster have dogged battlers allied to a few smooth operators, and I take that combination to win the pool. Northampton have a pack that can live with anyone, and the Pisi brothers are dangerous attacking runners, but until the Saints sort out the fly-half position I cannot see them winning it – and Glasgow and Castres will not be easy-beats. ‘Wow’ is my reaction to Pool 5. This sums up how strange the Heineken Cup draw can be.
If I was a sponsor I wouldn’t want Leinster and Clermont in the same group after they met in such a close semi-final last season. However, with the Scarlets also in the mix there won’t be a dull game. For Exeter it’s a case of welcome to the big time, and good luck. The Chiefs supporters will love the away trips, and although they could cause everyone problems at Sandy Park, Exeter could be drained by the experience. That leaves their coach, Rob Baxter, having to decide whether to fight on two fronts, or prioritise the Premiership.
Toulon have been built by Mourad Boudjellal’s millions to win trophies, and with Jonny Wilkinson heading up a squad of players who were world-class, with some still close to it, they are plenty strong enough to capture the Heineken Cup. I don’t see any problems for Toulon in Pool 6, although Cardiff have got a few world-class players of their own, including big Wales stars like Jamie Roberts, Sam Warburton, Alex Cuthbert and Leigh Halfpenny.
Sale‘s bad start to the domestic season suggests that they will probably have to concentrate on the Premiership rather than Europe – but they will be in the minority as the English clubs attempt to turn the tide back in their favour.