Leicester and Bath have had titanic battles in the past – including cup finals at Twickenham which I was lucky enough to have played in and finished on the winning side. However, in the modern era Leicester have been on top more often than not, despite a couple of decent Bath results.
This time when they meet neither team will be fully loaded and at their premium best, but which of them improves enough to come out on top could have a big influence on the Premiership run-in by claiming fourth place – and a semi-final.
That said, I would not hold out much chance of either of these Leicester or Bath teams challenging for the title by getting a semi-final result at Wasps. The reality is that both teams are really looking at a top six finish to get them into Europe next season – and if I was the coach of either of them I’d rather the season ended a game early so you could start preparing for the next campaign.
Leicester still have among the most solid foundations in the English and European game. They have the stadium, the support, the tradition and history, and let’s not forget many clubs would love to be in the position they are in. Fourth in the league and an Anglo-Welsh Cup title may not be good enough for the Tigers – with Richard Cockerill and Aaron Mauger being shown the door – but that would be an enviable position for many other clubs.
Bath are big match achievers who also have an enviable record, traditionally, in terms of winning trophies. It’s why they are bracketed in an elite group in English rugby alongside Leicester, Wasps and now Saracens. However, as was shown last weekend at Allianz Park, they have slipped far enough that they are now nowhere near the same class as Saracens, and there is no quick-fix to get them there.
Bath have had a number of coaching transformations since professionalism, stretching back to John Hall’s stint and the fly-on-the-wall documentary, followed by Andy Robinson and Brian Ashton. Since Bruce Craig bought the club we have had Iain McGeechan with Martin Haag alongside him, Haag alone, Gary Gold, Mike Ford, and now Todd Blackadder.
The missing ingredient – which is still missing – is how to sustain high performance. There’s no hiding that they dropped off a cliff last season on the way to Mike Ford’s departure, and since Blackadder’s arrival they have been trying to climb back up after a serious sporting trauma. The Sam Burgess stuff and the run of losses gave them a battering.
As a consequence Bath are nowhere near good enough to challenge Saracens or Wasps, and although they might have a one-off game in them, these days they rarely beat the big contenders.
They are having to go through a total reboot, and have a squad that should be playing far better than it is. There is a fitness element because you see Bath drop off in the last 15 minutes, and that level of conditioning is unacceptable. The differences between fitness levels at Premiership clubs should be marginal at best.
The crux is mental preparation. The level of skills I’ve seen at Bath is well below what I’d expect of one of the top teams in the country. I believe this Bath backline has real flair but question overall whether there is the right attitude to help it deliver.
From outside we hear that there is harmony and that the togetherness is being rebuilt by Blackadder and Tabai Matson. But at some stage we have to see a tougher Bath which holds players to account and confronts them with the harsh reality summed up by the question: are you doing enough to justify being here?
This Bath v Leicester clash is intriguing as much for what is going on off the field as what happens on it. A big part of the drama surrounds George Ford’s decision to go “to the dark side” by rejoining Leicester – and I am sure he will eventually tell us what made him do it.
If you look back over the last few years one of Leicester’s biggest problems has been a lack of continuity at fly-half. They lost losing Toby Flood and Ford at virtually the same time, and now you’ve got the same problem with Owen Williams and Freddie Burns. The question all the time is the same one: who is our best 10?
If you are chopping and changing at fly-half it’s a recipe for inconsistency. Players start to question why the coach does not have a regular 10, which sows doubt, and that doubt spreads.
Leicester are still searching, hence Ford’s return, and the one area this season where Bath should have had more stability than Leicester is at 9-10, especially as Kahn Fotuali’i has been sensational at scrum-half. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out as well as it might because Ford’s head has not been in the game all season, and most of his contributions for Bath this season have been forgettable.
Next season Ford will be joining a Tigers side in which Ben Youngs is a constant at scrum-half, but where the midfield has been constantly changing because of a combination of injuries and indifferent form.
At the back Telusa Veainu is a wonderfully gifted player who can be a game-changer, but he isn’t helped because from one week to the next he doesn’t know who will be alongside him in the Tigers backline.
In the past when things weren’t working out Leicester could always turn to their pack to get them moving – but that once vaunted pack is no longer. It has its moments, but it is not consistently terrifying like it used to be.
As a player I always loved the fact that everyone wanted to beat us – whether I was playing for Bath, England or the Lions – and because of the achievements and reputation the Tigers have earned over many seasons, it’s the same for them.
Before he was sacked, Cockerill was always looking for that edge, whether it was chatting to Graham Henry, or bringing in Matt O’Connor or Mauger to broaden their attacking horizons. Now, with Mauger getting the push like Cockerill, and O’Connor being brought back, the Leicester job is becoming a poisoned chalice.
One thing for sure: while Mauger’s departure may have been a shock to some of the players, it wasn’t to the Leicester board because O’Connor’s return will have taken some planning.
I fancy Tigers to clinch The Clash. They had a great result winning at Northampton, and they will get a bump with their ‘new’ old coach O’Connor coming back.