Jeremy Guscott column: Warren Gatland can turn this crazy schedule to his advantage
Added to that, Gatland is the coach with the most trophies and the best track record in the home unions with two Wales Grand Slams, a Six Nations title, and a European Cup and three Premiership titles with Wasps. He also comes with the bonus of knowing the territory because he is a Kiwi.
Despite Eddie Jones’ success with England over the last year, Joe Schmidt would have been second in line to Gatland. That’s because being a Lions coach is not so much about immediate success as knowledge and achievement in British and Irish rugby over a number of seasons, and Schmidt has had that with Ireland winning two Six Nations titles, and delivering two of Leinster‘s European Cup titles before that.
It is an opportunity that Gatland couldn’t turn down because, despite the punishing tour schedule, the Lions have a fantastic opportunity to beat the All Blacks. The itinerary is eye-watering, lung-busting, and incredibly challenging – but the Lions have to turn all that to their advantage.
The organisers have managed to put the Lions not just second in the pecking order of priorities, but third, fourth, and fifth, with commercial benefits and New Zealand’s benefits at the top of the list, and Lions player welfare at the bottom.
The most practical thing would have been for the season here to have ended earlier, but no-one was willing to budge.
It is all out of kilter because the Lions are ‘the money’, bringing good feeling and benefits across the board as one of the great sporting attractions, and for that reason they should really dictate a big part of the tour schedule. Instead, others have and, as usual, the Lions start with a big handicap.
The key for Gatland is to work out how to turn the tough schedule to the Lions’ advantage – and I believe it can be done. A large number of the Lions Test players will probably be involved in domestic and European Cup play-offs and finals right up to the end of the regular season, but that doesn’t have to leave them playing catch-up.
The 2017 Lions do not have to stand by tradition and give everyone a game in the opening four fixtures of the tour. The key thing after a long season will be for Gatland to get his Test players rested and fit for the three internationals which will decide the series – and if that means playing the remainder of the squad in the opening three games against the Provincial Union Combination, Blues, and Crusaders, no problem.
Gatland’s Test players will already be match-hardened and he will be in a position to bring them back to the boil again in the games against the Highlanders and the Maori ahead of the first Test. If that means the Lions drop a couple of midweek games – like those against the Chiefs, and Hurricanes in between the opening two Tests – then they may have to sacrifice that to give their top players the rest they require.
The older guys in the squad, who have been on one or two tours already, don’t need to be rushed in. They know what’s required, and will help integrate the new guys into the Lions philosophy. If there are any Kiwi complaints about the Lions resting Test players against their Super Rugby franchises all the tourists need to point out is that they didn’t set the itinerary. Irrespective, the next Lions tour – if there is a next tour – needs to be so much better scheduled.
Taking on the world champions is an exciting prospect. There is a formidable Lions pack out there that can play in a variety of ways. They can go direct, or they can go far and wide, and they should be more than capable of competing for the ball on the ground.
The squad is unlikely to be as strongly Welsh as it was in 2013. For instance, we know that Sam Warburton is not as strong a candidate for the captaincy and neither Jamie Roberts or Jonathan Davies are nailed-on in midfield. There is huge competition for places all round, and Gatland is not afraid of making tough decisions to get the job done.
The greatest challenges for the Lions will be fitness and getting their psychology right. Very few of them will ever have been as fit as the New Zealanders, and none will have surpassed them – but if Gatland can arrive with a super-fit Lions squad then they have a hell of a chance. In terms of tactics, England’s defensive strategy in their second Test summer tour victory over Australia might work against New Zealand once, but it would not be enough to win a series against them.
They are too smart for that, and if you conceded that much possession and territory to the All Blacks they would make you pay.
On the rare occasions New Zealand have been beaten in recent seasons it is been because they have faced a fierce challenge at the breakdown against sides who have gone out to score tries against them – and that is what the Lions have to do.
The good news is that Gatland has a squad of players talented enough to play every type of game you need. There are any amount of variety and combinations in every row of the scrum, and every position in the backline. Just look at the options provided at fly-half by Owen Farrell, Jonny Sexton, George Ford and Dan Biggar, or those at full-back with Leigh Halfpenny, Stuart Hogg and Rob Kearney.
New Zealand will know that most of the Lions have had a wrecking-ball of a season, and in the early provincial games they will want to wreck them a bit more. That’s probably why they have made a strong statement of making All Blacks available for the early games, so that they can look for the collector’s item of a win over the Lions.
Any England players who make the squad have to realise that New Zealand offers a totally different opposition, culture, and environment to what they faced in Australia. New Zealand represents an intensity and depth of rugby knowledge that drives the world’s most successful sports team. The All Blacks have been unbeaten at home for seven years, and are sporting phenomenon that commands respect.
That’s what makes it such a great challenge. I loved my Lions experience there in 1993, and we got close – although we were well beaten in the final Test. New Zealand knew they were lucky to win in the first Test with a last-minute Grant Fox penalty, and they also knew they were outplayed by the Lions in Wellington in the second Test. But there was no rubbing it in our faces after the third Test, and we didn’t get much of the tabloid stuff.
It was a challenge on all fronts, but the New Zealand public was respectful despite the great intensity in the build-up to the Test series. You smell rugby as soon as you land in New Zealand, but any Lions squad must embrace it, and go with it, rather than fight it.
One of the jobs the 2017 Lions will have is laying to rest the disaster of the 2005 tour. Thankfully, lessons have been learned – and Warren Gatland has been a big part of that.
