Jeremy Guscott: You can bet Richie McCaw and Dan Carter will be ready

One of the big stories so far in the Super 15 is the Crusaders failing to make the play-offs for the first time in 14 years. The reality is that, a bit like Leicester in the Premiership, the Crusaders have not been the dominant force they were. The concern in New Zealand is that their failure to win the trophy as a send-off for Richie McCaw and Dan Carter could also have implications for the All Blacks, with neither the Christchurch-based franchise nor their NZ legends hitting top form so far this season.
What has to be recognised is that even during their glory years the Crusaders were not all about McCaw and Carter, because, as great as they are, they cannot win you every single game.
However, the presence of McCaw probably helped New Zealand to win the 2011 World Cup final, while no one would argue that Carter was instrumental in the All Blacks cruising to victory over the 2005 Lions. They have been superb, exceptional players – gods of rugby – and while they may not have had the end they wanted with the Crusaders, they will still have multiple memories of successful trophy-winning Super campaigns to cherish over the next few years.
From McCaw’s vantage point, after New Zealand’s 2015 title defence he will take stock in retirement (unless he changes his mind), whereas Carter will have time to reflect on what he has achieved – and what more he wants to achieve – from his new base in Paris with Racing.
McCaw has paced himself well, and he’s still holding his own against every international opponent he faces. Because of his exceptional abilities he is able to adapt, in the way all the great players do. Martin Johnson changed his game as he got older, as did Brian O’Driscoll. Great players generally know when it’s time to step away. If they sense that young whippersnappers are going to start showing them up they are smart enough to call time.
However, the other side of the coin is that one of the bonuses at the end of your career is that you really enjoy it due to experience helping you to seize opportunities by making the right decisions at the right time.
McCaw has commanded and earned his place in the All Black line-up for more than a decade, but the smart thing about New Zealand is the way that they groom young players like Sam Cane to take over at No.7. That’s why, even when a player of McCaw’s calibre is injured, someone always seems to step in and do the job without any drama.
McCaw is different because of his sustained brilliance for so long, and also because he broke the Kiwi World Cup famine that lasted for 24 years. McCaw hasn’t lost his mystique – he still wins turn-overs, carries effectively, scores tries, and, incredibly, very rarely gets yellow-carded. In the selection for the 2015 tournament he is not being challenged to the same degree as Carter, and it seems certain that, barring injury, he will be captain during the campaign.
By contrast Carter has a hell of a job on his hands to win the fly-half shirt. Beauden Barrett had been a playing extremely well before being temporarily sidelined with a knock, and Carter’s Crusaders team-mate, Colin Slade, has also gone well this season. This included Slade claiming the 10 shirt and forcing his star rival to play 12. Carter hasn’t been helped by injuries, which means that he hasn’t really sustained a good run games for the Crusaders.
No-one can predict what will happen with the NZ 10 shirt, because of the level of competition.
If Carter was in the form of four or five years ago you’d say it was his. But when Aaron Cruden took over he became coach Steve Hansen’s banker, until being ruled out the World Cup with injury. At the same time, Barrett was being brought on because – a bit like George Ford and Owen Farrell with England – he had more of an attacking repertoire than Cruden.
However, although Hansen knows all about these No.10s, when a coach has hard decisions to make – the sort that could be the difference between winning and losing World Cups – he will usually go to who he knows best. And that is Carter. He may not have hit any headlines by simply linking, passing and supporting at 12 for the Crusaders, but my instinct is that he will be superbly prepared for this tournament because of the way he missed-out on the last one. Sure, he got a winner’s medal in 2011, and deserved it, but he will want to be a constant factor on the pitch this time.
Form-wise Carter might not be there yet, but I’m sure that he will be saying to Hansen, “I’m ready,” before the Southern Hemisphere Championship kicks off.
The tell-tale sign will be whether Carter still has that ability to ghost between two defenders before giving the killer off-load to Sonny Bill Williams, Ma’a Nonu or Julian Savea. He’s always been deceptively quick and strong, and he needs to produce it over the next couple of months because Barrett is smoking hot.
Slade also covers all the bases, and with Carter’s aura not quite so bright as it was he will know that it is time to turn up the voltage. Before the last World Cup he was the automatic first-choice All Black fly-half thanks to a running game that set him apart, goal-kicking to rank alongside Jonny Wilkinson’s, and a strong defensive act – but now he has to re-establish himself.
The rest of the season will be a hard slog for two veterans who are well into their thirties, and they will be conditioned and trained as vigourously as anyone else in the New Zealand squad. However, I suspect that Hansen will make sure that their programmes are not as intense or exhaustive as those given to players of 24, working from the principle that a 100 year oak is stronger than its 10-year-old counterpart.
However, I don’t believe that if McCaw or Carter are ruled out by injury before or during the 2015 tournament that it will be terminal for New Zealand’s hopes of retaining the title. McCaw undoubtedly has a huge influence, and is held in great respect, but this New Zealand side is so good that when he and Carter have not been playing they have barely missed a beat.
Collective strength has always been the All Black way, and that’s not going to change now.