Jeremy Guscott: Saracens have the pedigree to top their pool of death
However, this is what everyone bought into by going for five pools with four teams in them, in a tournament reduced to only 20 clubs. You’ve got to muscle-up, front-up, and get the job done – because Saracens’ group is like a series of quarter-finals straightaway. It’s mouthwatering. Pool 1 is a bit like England’s 2015 World Cup pool with Wales and Australia in it. Those who avoided it will be thinking they’ve dodged a bullet.
Despite their Premiership defeat at Bath last weekend Saracens looked a well-drilled side. Don’t get me wrong, Bath played well and deserved to win but Saracens were organised and very dangerous in attack. It cost them when Chris Ashton was sin-binned, but otherwise Saracens had good opportunities and were well-oiled.
They won’t be too despondent about that loss going into their first round clash with Clermont at Allianz Park, especially as they annihilated them at Twickenham in last season’s semi-final and know how fragile the French psyche can be away from home.
Allianz Park may not be a fortress yet, but if Saracens can start with a win and go to Thomond Park in round two and then the Stade Marcel Michelin and get results they will have done brilliantly. Their track record suggests they have the capability to get out of the group in one piece.
Harlequins have gone through this competition without ever quite getting there, and it will be interesting to see if they can push on in Pool 2 despite their domestic slip-ups. They should start with a win given that Castres, who they play first at The Stoop, have only just got off the foot of the Top 14 table and are unlikely to be too focused on Europe.
What happens after that depends on the focus of Quins’ big England contingent. There is such a buzz about the 2015 World Cup that it will be hard for them to keep their focus on the job, and I’m also not sure that they are powered-up enough to be a force in the latter stages of the tournament.
Harlequins should go alright against Wasps and Castres, but Leinster will be a tougher hurdle. Leinster’s Pro12 form may not have been great, but they have the pedigree. Wasps will be trying to play a quick game, but they will also need Andy Goode to pin opponents down with his tactical kicking and goal-kicking.
From an English perspective neither Leicester or Quins are where they would want to be going into European competition – and the Tigers have got an uphill struggle in Pool 3 where they face the champions, Toulon, as well as Ulster and the Scarlets.
Who Toulon play, and when they play them, will not matter a lot because they are going for an unprecedented three titles in a row. It is a phenomenal incentive, but the key thing for Toulon to establish that Matt Giteau is staying next season. He was their player of the season last campaign, and he is such an inspirational, sparky influence that his team-mates will want it settled.
I get the feeling that Ulster will also be knocking on the door, and Paddy Jackson at fly-half will be crucial to their hopes of a good start at Welford Road. This is his chance to move out of the shadow of Ruan Pienaar. He’s done the apprenticeship, now it’s time to take the reins.
Bath are another side who are going to find out how good they are as they try to compete strongly on two fronts, domestic and European. They have the advantage of playing Toulouse first up at The Rec in Pool 4, with the French giants all over the place on and off the field. Toby Flood must be wondering what he’s walked into, and Bath must fancy their chances.
However, Glasgow are not to be taken lightly and praise is due to coach Gregor Townsend for encouraging an exciting aggressive style of play. Another team on the up are Montpellier, who are coached by Fabien Galthie, who could possibly be the next French coach.
Bath have made the headlines for beating Saracens and Leicester at home, but this is a group I can see going to the line and only being settled in the last round.
Northampton have to go to Racing Metro in the opening round of Pool 5, and if they have serious designs on this tournament they have to come away from Paris with a win. To do so they will have to step up on their performance against London Irish and put down a marker.
The Ospreys cannot be written off after their promising start in the Pro12, and it is time that a Welsh side aspired to be champions of Europe. That ambition could be helped by the presence of arguably the weakest side in the competition, Benetton Treviso, making this pool the most likely for the second place side to qualify for the knock-out stages.
*This article was first published in The Rugby Paper on October 12
