Jeff Probyn: Where do English clubs go if they quit Heineken Cup?

This week saw the traditional end to the rugby season at club level with the vast majority of England‘s clubs playing the last league games of their season and yet the Premiership will continue until May 4 even before the first of the play-offs.
Stretching the season to 38 weeks is needed to fit in all the many competitions that make up the Premiership season as they struggle to finance the professional game.
Among those competitions is the Heineken Cup, where both the English and French clubs have made better showings this season than last – as the make-up of the quarter and semi finalists have shown. Even so, the Premiership remain set on confrontation with ERC.
This could mean that English clubs will be out of the European competition come 2015, which seems to me a little bit like cutting your nose off to spite your face given the importance of the competition to all.
Although both the French Top 14 and the Premiership have served notice to quit, the French have said they will not leave the Heineken even if there is no change (they are seeking dialogue, rather than threats and confrontation).
That’s partly because the French do not have the same issues as the Premiership, being more interested in the timing of the competition rather than the finances and qualification.
They may want a reduction in the size of the current competition, like the Premiership, because it interferes with their league but they are hostage to their federation in a way that the Premiership are not.
French clubs do not own their grounds so cannot make demands that do not have the support of the FFR who, in turn, can be pressured by the other Unions.
The problem for the Premiership is that having nailed their colours to the mast, they will have to fulfil their threat and withdraw, despite the damage it will do to the competition and the ‘goodwill’ between nations.
They have walked away before in the Nineties, but after a short break came back and will probably do the same again which could weaken their position in any attempts to force change in the structure of the contest.
The fact remains that the Premiership needs the Heineken more than the Heineken needs them, particularly if the French won’t, or can’t, take that final step of leaving the competition.
It would also damage the Premiership in terms of their own fan base that have grown used to their teams taking part in a Europe-wide competition with away games that offer some of the best short breaks with some great games.
The likelihood that any of the other nations would willingly accept a reduction in the number of their teams taking part is zero, as they already have fewer teams involved than either France or England, and although the Italians are slowly getting better, they are unlikely to constantly hold down a top six place in the Rabo for a number of years yet.
If changes took place as the English want, there is a real prospect of a European competition with a reduced number of countries taking part which would mean it would no longer be a true European competition.
As I have said before when looking at qualification, which seems to cause the most confusion and consternations with supporters, the Premiership are not comparing eggs with eggs when talking about the Rabo, Top 14 or Premiership when it comes to structure.
The Rabo is, in effect, a level above club rugby and is a concentration of each country’s talent into regional teams providing each represented country with an ability to remain competitive.
For countries like Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy (or New Zealand, South Africa and Australia), competing at a club level with the likes of England and France would be an impossible task, simply because of numbers.
The player numbers required to create more clubs and form meaningful leagues enabling clubs to reach the high standard needed for developing players for international rugby is available only in a few countries. And therein lies the rub. If there is an agreement to reduce the number of teams in the Heineken, it is likely to reduce the competitiveness of the Rabo nations and could damage the Six Nations in the long term.
The question for the Premiership is, in order to give them the same revenue and kudos as the Heineken, where would they go if they left the European competition?
All the talk about Anglo-Welsh or Anglo-French can’t happen because both the Welsh and French will still be playing in the Heineken and as for a cross hemisphere contest, (as Saracens showed when trying to move a game to South Africa) it is unlikely to find favour with spectators.
The idea of a club/regional world championship might work but would probably have a better chance if it were the European champion versus the winner of the Rugby Championship, but that may come under threat from RWC as a potential rival.
That would leave the most likely and easiest option, which is releasing players for a fourth Autumn International. That could provide an opportunity to shrink the Premiership playing season down and give a break for the players.
There is still hope that a bit more money on the table for the Premiership will be enough to avert their withdrawal. If not the fourth game option will provide the Premiership with financial cover – at least until they swallow their pride and go back into Europe.