Heading into the penultimate round of the Premiership season seven teams still stand a chance of reaching the play-offs, with each of them in contention of having a home semi-final.
Some matches this weekend could prove decisive in confirming, or ending, a club’s hopes of playing beyond the regular season – and all of them will have a huge say in determining the final ranking.
TRP online editor Nick Powell looks at each game of round 17 as the season nears its crescendo.
Friday
Newcastle Falcons vs Bath (Kingston Park, 7:45pm)
English rugby’s most northerly club are running out of matches to avoid joining Rotherham (2003/04) and London Welsh (2014/15) in having only the third winless season of the Premiership era, though by almost every measure they have been significantly more competitive this season than those clubs had been.
Due to the RFU’s draconian and arbitrary Minimum Standards Criteria (MSC), no clubs from the Championship with a chance of winning the title have been deemed eligible for promotion, so Newcastle will avoid the same relegation fate that befell those two clubs.
But with the likes of Louie Johnson, Matías Orlando and Guy Pepper all heading off next season and Mateo Carreras having already departed for Bayonne, a season that ends without a win will add to concerns for their future.
Fullback Louis Brown, centre Cameron Richardson and second row Tim Cardall all come into the starting XV as Falcons look to get a first victory in their last home game of the season.
They face a Bath team flying high and closing in on a first appearance in the play-offs since 2020, who have just given coach Johann van Graan a vote of confidence with a contract to take him into the next decade.
If Bath win their last two games with a bonus point, they will place themselves well to achieve a home semi-final. Defeat to Saracens last time out took it out of their hands, but the North London club will need to be perfect in their final two games if Bath are too – while leaders Northampton will need a bonus point win this weekend to make it impossible for Bath to catch them as well.
Fly-half Finn Russell’s return is the big selection story for Bath, and he’ll be alongside by fellow Scot Cameron Redpath – also returning from injury – just outside him at inside centre.
Tom Dunn and Thomas du Toit also come into the starting XV, joining Beno Obano in a powerful front row.
Sale Sharks vs Leicester Tigers (AJ Bell Stadium, 7:45pm, live on TNT Sports)
Sale have reignited their bid for a place in the top four in their last three Premiership games, winning each of them with a bonus point and an average winning margin of 21 points.
After a patchy December and winless January had threatened to derail their season, a Six Nations break followed by an exit from European competition seems to have focussed the minds back on the punchy, clinical rugby that saw them reach the final last term.
Three of Sale’s changes come in the backs with Gus Warr preferred to Raffi Quirke at scrum-half, Sam James starting at full-back for his final home game and Tom O’Flaherty replacing Arron Reed on the wing.
Hyron Andrews makes his first Sharks start in the second row, and back row Ernst van Rhyn returns to the squad on the bench.
Visitors Leicester’s top four challenge came to an end in painful fashion, as they squandered a 19-0 lead with only 12 minutes remaining to hand victory to Bristol Bears at Welford Road last time out.
The 2022 champions made a slow start to this campaign and have found their best all too infrequently, and knowing that ninth-placed Gloucester could earn a spot in the Champions Cup if they win the Challenge Cup later this month, they will be anxious to earn the two victories needed to stand a chance of securing a top seven spot and guaranteeing their own qualification.
With skipper Julian Montoya ruled out Hanro Liebenberg takes the captaincy, while Charlie Clare comes in to replace the Argentine in the front row along with Francois van Wyk at loosehead.
Harry Wells replaces Ollie Chessum after the latter’s recent shoulder surgery, and Jamie Shillock comes into on the wing to replace the suspended Mike Brown. Solomone Kata returns from his own suspension to take his place on the bench.
Saturday
Northampton Saints vs Gloucester (cinch Stadium at Franklin’s Gardens, 3:00pm)
Northampton will take a huge step to securing top spot with victory against Gloucester, and they will be helped by facing a Cherry and Whites side whose coach has already admitted they are prioritising cup competitions.
Saints’ exit from the Champions Cup last Saturday was a frustrating one, particularly with the quality they showed in the latter part of the contest, but they will hope it can spur them on to Premiership success – a league where they have been easily the most consistent team.
Angus Scott-Young lines up on the opposite side to skipper Courtney Lawes at openside flanker, while Ollie Sleightholme comes in on the wing in Northampton’s two alterations from the Leinster defeat.
Having made nine changes between their last league game and Challenge Cup semi-final, Gloucester make a further dozen this week.
That’s perhaps the best indication that the Cherry and Whites are using the end of the Premiership season to give players time off as they prepare for the final.
An all-new front row sees Harry Erlington, Santi Socino and Ciaran Knight line-up with Arthur Clarke replacing his namesake Freddie in the second row.
Albert Tuisue and Jack Clement replace Ruan Ackermann and Zach Mercer respectively in the back row, as skipper Lewis Ludlow continues in the backs.
Stephen Varney and Charlie Atkinson form a new half-back duo, while Jack Reeves and Louis Hillman-Cooper form a new centre pairing.
Jake Morris and Alex Hearle round out the starting team changes on the two wings, while Dragons loanee Sam Scarfe could make his debut as a replacement hooker.
Bristol Bears vs Saracens (Ashton Gate, 3:05pm, live on ITV and TNT Sports)
Bristol looked to be set for another season outside the play-offs early this year, but have since gone on a barnstorming winning run that has seen them score 248 points in five Premiership matches – just shy of 50 points per game.
In addition to racking up a half century against third-placed Bath and leaders Northampton, Bristol broke the record for the highest points tally by a home team in Premiership history as they crushed Newcastle 85-14, and have produced two superb comeback victories against Gloucester and Leicester.
Their attack is flowing as brilliantly as it has for three years, when they last made the play-offs at the top of the table, and whilst they may be under more pressure now as their odds of making the top four increase, the confidence they are playing with suggests they will go into their final two games in their best form.
Unsurprisingly given their recent run, the Bears have kept changes to a minimum with the only alteration seeing Max Malins come in at 15 against his former club.
By the standards they have set over the past decade, this has not been a particularly impressive season for Saracens, but the Londoners have appeared to finally find form since the Six Nations break concluded.
Though defeats to leaders Northampton in the Premiership and Bordeaux in the Champions Cup have happened since, performances like their dismantling of Harlequins in “The Showdown” and battling win away against home semi-final rivals Bath have shown them at their best, and they will need to produce something similar to halt the Bears charge.
Saracens make four changes from that win at The Rec, as Mako Vunipola and Marco Riccioni line-up as two new props and Hugh Tizard joins Maro Itoje in the second row.
Ivan van Zyl comes in at nine, while Billy Vunipola could appear from the bench in a 6:2 split of forwards and backs despite his recent arrest in Majorca.
Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins (Sandy Park, 5:30pm, live on TNT Sports)
Exeter Chiefs’ young guns have outperformed expectations this season according to coach Rob Baxter, as he spoke following their win at Kingsholm that reignited their chances of making the play-offs.
They will need to win their final two games with a bonus point to stand a chance of reaching the semi-finals, but will have confidence having had a week of extra rest against a side who have conceded an average of more than 37 points in their last seven games, and have not won away in the league since 5th January.
Chiefs are unchanged from their win against Gloucester for their last home game of the season.
Harlequins put in a competitive showing as their impressive European run was ended in Toulouse last Sunday, and will hope they can use the experience as a springboard to reach another semi-final.
Quins have been dogged by inconsistency throughout the season, perhaps explaining why they have opted to make four changes for their trip to Devon to freshen up their team.
Joe Marler returns to the front row, with James Chisholm starting on the openside.
Oscar Beard takes the 13 shirt with Luke Northmore shuffling to inside centre, while in-form Will Porter replaces Danny Care at scrum-half – on the week when Care announced he would be spending a 19th season in the quarters.
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