The bookmakers don’t always get it right when it comes to rugby union. If they did, then the All Blacks would have hoisted the Webb Ellis Cup aloft at least a few more times down the years. Yet, the odds – and how they shift – can be a useful indicator, especially if they disagree with the consensus of pundits.
Indeed, it must be remembered that the odds can shift dramatically. Just under a year ago, Ireland had been placed right on New Zealand’s shoulder. On the eve of the tournament in Japan, Ireland have dropped down to 5th favourites with several bookmakers. Although, a handful of betting sites, including 888sport, have Wales marginally behind Ireland at 9/1.
New Zealand, of course, remain favourites at 5/4. The odds have only moved slightly after the stunning defeat at the hands of Australia in the first Bledisloe Cup clash. It was Australia‘s first victory over the All-Blacks since 2017, but it was the 47 points conceded – a record – that would have raised some eyebrows. Yet, there are always caveats, and it should be remembered that New Zealand played a lot of the game with 14 men, and that they bounced back with a 36-0 victory a week later in Auckland.
South Africa have improved markedly
South Africa and England occupy the spots as second and third favourites, although some bookies favour one over the other. You can find both nations at a price of around 9/2. You can see the logic in pushing England and South Africa upwards. Both have improved over the last 12 months, and you could argue a strong case that they deserve to have usurped Ireland as the main challengers to the All-Blacks.
However, when it comes to rugby union betting and, indeed, rugby league betting, there is always some wisdom at looking beyond the favourites. The aforementioned Ireland at 8/1 is interesting, but their form has fallen off a cliff. Wales at 9/1 is the one that really seems to be interesting punters. Information from Oddschecker shows that Wales have taken on 23.23% of all outright bets for the World Cup, more than any other nation. It looks the perfect mix of value and realistic ambition.
Australia still have work to do
What should we make of the 12/1 for Australia? The Wallabies were tremendous in that record-breaking 47-26 thrashing of New Zealand; but the question is if it is an anomaly, or a sign that a rugby superpower is getting back to somewhere near its best? It’s always hard to say. But the performance a week later in Auckland was toothless, and Michael Cheika had made but one change to the starting line-up.
France, Argentina and Scotland represent a trio of nations given odds of around 33/1 – 40/1. It would take a confident punter to back any of the trio to win outright, but is there any value in an each-way bet? Scotland will fancy their chances in a weak Pool And can be backed at 3/1 (888sport) to top the table ahead of Ireland and Japan. 4/1 for Scotland to reach the semi-finals also looks smart given how the draw can pan out.
Not to be dismissive about the rest of the nations, but we are moving to miracle territory for any side from Japan (200/1) downwards through the rankings. Reaching the quarter final would be seen as a coup for the hosts, and it isn’t beyond them. At a price of 5/2, the bookies don’t think so either.
