Jeremy Guscott: Lions have the ferocity up front to shock All Blacks

It’s not long now until Warren Gatland makes the final call on what will be the biggest challenge of his coaching career – and it’s not been made any easier by the nature of England‘s defeat in Dublin. Whereas in previous years the Lions had at least half a team nailed on for selection, this time, outside of the Irish half-backs Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton, the whole team is wide open which will only add to the intensity in the build up to that first Test.
Debate has raged as to who will lead the squad, but I don’t think it’s important who wears the armband – ultimately Gatland will need 15 captains on the pitch at all times. All of the candidates are playing well enough and the coaches will have contingency plans in case injury or loss of form plays a part in the coming weeks.
It won’t happen, but I would be happy for either Murray or Sexton to be named skipper. They are both guaranteed starters and have earned the respect of every other player for their consistent quality over the last four years since the trip to Australia. But I can’t see Gatland going for a back.
In the past, like the majority of coaches, Gatland has wanted to have a big forward leading the team and the bookies seem to have Sam Warburton back in pole. He’s as good a choice as any and, on form, the best openside. While it is not an ideal situation, Gatland has to deal with what is now and while he had more standout players who demanded selection in 2013, there will be real competition all the way up to that first Test – and beyond.
There are so many debatable selections that some very big names will miss out. Apart from the half-backs, CJ Stander is possibly the only other who has stated his case for inclusion louder than any other No.6 – I can’t think of a better blindside in the Home Unions.
It’s just so hard to pick the line-up with such a vast talent pool to select from. Take second row for instance. Alun-Wyn Jones is probably the standout, but George Kruis, if fit, must start because he’s such a massive player for England. His contribution in every game is enormous – but then so is Maro Itoje’s. Joe Launchbury enjoyed a great Six Nations, and then there are the Irish boys, Devon Toner and Donnacha Ryan, plus Scotland’s Gray brothers. The competition is enormous for each and every position.
In contrast, New Zealand have been playing like a top club teams for years and, if fit, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick almost name themselves in the boiler room.
The All Blacks are tried and tested, and while they are still going through a stage of delayed impact from the loss of all those world class superstars since the World Cup – Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Dan Carter, Richie McCaw and Keven Mealamu – as in past generations, players will come and go but the All Black machine will roll on. But they will be coming into the first Test cold and if the Lions can bulldoze them up front, anything is possible.
New Zealand don’t seem as unbeatable as they did in the build up to the 2015 World Cup. They have still lost only one game in the past two years, but I look at the possible strength in that Lions pack and it can cause New Zealand problems with their mobility combined with powerful ball-carriers. Man for man, the forward unit Gatland puts together will more than match New Zealand and the key thing that intrigues me is how NZ cope with the Lions’ ferocity. They’ll come ready to play with an intensity this All Blacks side will not have faced. Ever.
Australia have gone backwards since threatening a renaissance at the World Cup,  South Africa are not a patch on what they were and Argentina still lack the strength in depth to be truly competitive.
But New Zealand always seem to have a tactic to dismantle the opposition and find a way to win. In the past they have combined high intensity with a very low error count, relying on superior skill levels to turn the screw  but I’m not sure that will be enough this year.
While the Lions will struggle to match their skills, from No.1 to 23 they will more than match their intensity, which maybe hasn’t been there in the past. The All Blacks have enjoyed the advantage of having a bench of such high-quality players they would start in most Test teams. This time, the Lions will be able to match that by bringing on their own high-octane replacements and I expect Gatland to go with a similar mind-set to Eddie Jones, with some genuine x-factor, game-changing players on the bench.
Sonny Bill Williams filled that role at the last World Cup and his return to action yesterday for the Blues will add another dimension to the All Black attack, while solidifying the defence.
You can’t question SBW’s ability to perform on the big stage and he’ll be hungry to stamp his mark on the Blues in the coming weeks to show Steve Hansen he is ready for the Lions – and I’m backing him to have huge impact on the series. He’s so good that although you know exactly what he’s going to do, you still can’t stop it. I’d be surprised if he isn’t starting at No.12 and offering Beauden Barrett defensive protection and attacking foil.
The All Blacks have a deep-rooted belief that they are always fitter than their opponents but that’s also starting to change. Whether it’s been the influence of Southern Hemisphere coaches – Vern Cotter, Joe Schmidt, Gatland and Jones – the Home Unions have come on leaps and bounds since RWC2015. These coaches realise that you can’t play top level rugby and compete with the very best unless you are in the best shape of your life and able to match them physically for 80 minutes.
The tide is turning back towards the Northern Hemisphere and now the Lions must go and prove it by being ultra-competitive against the best team in the world.